Both Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin have played in every game this season, but McLaughlin (quad) will miss Week 16’s Thursday night matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers due to a quad injury he suffered in Week 15.
The highest snap share Williams received this season was 67%, but since Week 8, Williams hovered in the 50% range while McLaughlin was garnering around 20-30% of the work. In Week 13, though, McLaughlin rushed 14 times for 84 yards while Williams carried four times for one yard.
With McLaughlin out of the picture, the assumption is that Williams will be the bell cow for the Broncos, but I have my doubts. I think Williams will be limited in the 50-60% range while rookie Audric Estime steps up in to the 20-30% area. In Week 10, Estime garnered 45% of the snaps, and he was in on 21% of the snaps in Week 15.
While Estime has been poor with a -0.16 EPA per carry, Williams has been worse at -0.24. McLaughlin was at -0.05, which sheds light on why he was so involved this season despite being only 5-foot-8 and 187 pounds.
Where Williams should dominate, though, is in the passing game. Estime has received only four targets this season and posted a -0.1 EPA per route and -0.67 EPA per target. Williams is second on the team with 53 targets and has posted an EPA per route of -0.03 and EPA per target of -0.15.
The Chargers have seen the third-most targets to opposing running backs.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
