The Week 16 Thursday Night Football matchup arrives with some significant playoff stakes. The Los Angeles Chargers will host the Denver Broncos with both teams having eyes on the playoffs. The Broncos enter this matchup with a 9-5 record and the Chargers sit at 8-6.
The Chargers got the better of the Broncos in the first matchup producing a 23-16 victory in Week 6. With the Chiefs still holding the top spot in the AFC West, this matchup will go a long way in dictating who will have the higher playoff seed.
This also creates another opportunity for a DraftKings Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) Showdown slate. Here is a look at some DFS captain and value plays that could greatly outproduce their salaries in DraftKings Showdown contests.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (LAC vs DEN)
Captains Plays
Justin Herbert ($14,700)
Things seem to be fully clicking for Justin Herbert in the new Jim Harbaugh-led offense. So far this season he has completed 255 of his 399 pass attempts for 2,959 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. Herbert leads the NFL with a league-best 0.5% interception rate. While Herbert has been a better quarterback from an NFL perspective than a fantasy football perspective, his level of opportunity has expanded as the season has progressed. Currently, he ranks 17th among quarterbacks in DraftKings fantasy scoring.
This outlook is a bit clouded from a slow start to the season. Through the opening four games, Herbert attempted 27 or fewer passes and was limited to 179 passing yards or fewer. He began to break through in the Week 6 matchup with the Broncos where Herbert completed 21 of his 34 pass attempts for 237 passing yards. Across the nine weeks since this time, Herbert is averaging 238.2 passing yards per game and has thrown the ball 30+ times in six of the nine games. It has become increasingly clear that the Chargers go as Herbert takes them with Los Angeles being held to 94 or fewer rushing yards in each of the past four weeks. While the Broncos are a tough defense, it is difficult to find any sort of offensive belief for the Chargers excluding Herbert. He tallied 13.7 fantasy points in the first matchup with the Broncos and has eclipsed this number in the six consecutive games following this. Expect him to add to this list tonight.
Courtland Sutton ($14,400)
While Bo Nix ($15,00) should also be considered as a Captain’s choice, Courtland Sutton could be in line for a massive offensive output against the Chargers. Denver made it clear this offseason they view Sutton as the top guy and solidified this by trading away Jerry Jeudy. Sutton has recorded 66 receptions for 878 receiving yards and six touchdowns on the season. No other member of the Broncos has eclipsed 40 receptions, 377 receiving yards, or three receiving touchdowns. Sutton ranks 12th among wide receivers in DraftKings fantasy scoring.
The 29-year-old has been especially impressive in recent weeks. He has recorded 70 or more receiving yards in six of the past seven weeks. Sutton has benefitted from Bo Nix being given more freedom in the offense and recorded at least 12.2 fantasy points in every game since Week 7. This also includes a 29.7-point fantasy output in Week 12 which ranked fourth among wide receivers and ninth among all position players. While Los Angeles has a stingy defense, Sutton is the clear-cut top pass catcher for the Broncos and will see his opportunities to make plays. Expect him to finish right in the mix for the top scorer in the matchup and keep him in mind for your captains choice.
Value Plays
Kimani Vidal ($6,800)
The Chargers rushing attack holds an uncertain outlook following the injury to J.K Dobbins which put him on IR. Gus Edwards is the clear second option but has not done enough in his opportunities to solidify his spot as the lead back. Instead, Kimani Vidal has remained in the mix and could be in line for increased opportunity in this AFC West matchup. On the season overall, Edwards has recorded 87 carries for 297 yards and two touchdowns while Vidal has logged just 33 carries for 107 yards on the season. It is worth adding that Vidal has only played seven games this season.
Across the seven games Vidal has been active he has received at least three carries in each. While his longest rushing output is just 34 yards, he has shown some capabilities in the passing game logging as many as 40 receiving yards in a game. The lack of impact from Gus Edwards is the driving force of Vidal’s potential opportunity. Edwards has seen more carries but has not rushed for more than 59 yards in a game all season or more than 36 yards since Week 9. Vidal has a spark with the ball in his hands the Chargers may look to exploit more and don’t be surprised if Vidal can outperform Edwards for the first time in this matchup.
Marvin Mims Jr ($4,400)
A second-year pass-catcher out of Oklahoma, Marvin Mims Jr has been a significant breakout player in recent weeks. After being limited to just three total catches across the opening six games of the season, Mims has tallied 20 catches for 261 yards in the eight games since. In Week 13 against the Browns, Mims erupted for 105 receiving yards and a touchdown, showing off his big play ability.
Denver’s willingness to open up the playbook for Bo Nix has benefitted all pass-catchers and Mims is near the top of the list. He has tallied at least two receptions across each of the past five games and 44+ yards in three of these matchups. While the initial goal of the season was the evaluation and development of Bo Nix, the training wheels are off now that Denver is in the playoff mix. Look for the Broncos to have a concrete passing game plan and for Mims to continue to be involved in the offense.
Stone Smartt ($4,200)
You may not have known the name Stone Smartt before the past two weeks but DFS players should get familiar. The third-year tight-end has erupted across the past two matchups recording eight receptions for 104 receiving yards. The 37% and 67% offensive snaps he has logged are his two highest of the season with the 67% offensive snap rate marking the highest of his career.
The door has been opened for Smartt following the injury to Will Dissly. The 28-year-old suffered a shoulder injury in Week 14 which kept him out last week as well. His status does not look overly optimistic and keep an eye on his status leading up to the game. Dissly has tallied 43 receptions for 418 yards and a touchdown on the season.
In addition to the injury impact, Denver has struggled to defend tight ends this season. Overall, Denver has allowed an average of 4.3 receptions for 44.4 receiving yards on the year. If Dissly remains on the sideline, it is worth capitalizing and getting Smartt in your lineups.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (LAC vs DEN)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
