The Kansas City Chiefs have the AFC West locked up, but the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers are both likely to make the playoffs because only three AFC teams outside the division leaders have a record above .500. Oh, that silly AFC.
These teams met in Week 6, with the Chargers galloping out of Denver with a 23-16 victory. Denver had seven penalties and two turnovers in that one, while Los Angeles had only three penalties with a clean sheet in the turnover department.
J.K. Dobbins carried 25 times for 96 yards and a touchdown, but he’s on IR, so the running game likely won’t be as productive with Gus Edwards likely starting.
Denver has won four straight contests while Los Angeles has lost their last two.
Denver is 15th in pass rate while Los Angeles is 20th. Both teams like to play towards their defenses, and why not, because they are tied with 17.6 points allowed per game, the lowest in the NFL.
DraftKings Sportsbook has LAC -2.5 over DEN with the total at 41.5.
As for Wednesday’s injury report, Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II practiced fully while RB Jaleel McLaughlin is out. Chargers TE Will Dissly is out. Stay informed on the most recent updates at DK LIVE.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (DEN @ LAC)
Captain’s Picks
Bo Nix ($15,000 CP): Since Week 8, Nix has attempted at least 30 passes in every game. What makes him dangerous, though, is the rushing ability. While he hasn’t been running much recently, choosing to dink and dunk instead, it’s still in his arsenal and provides a potential ceiling that would be hard to match for anyone else. In Week 7 against the Saints, Nix rushed 10 times for 75 yards. Against these Chargers in Week 6, he rushed six times for 61 yards. Nix has four games over 20 FPTS with a high of 31.78 FPTS. I’m not expecting a ton of points in this one, but Nix will have a hand in however many Denver puts up.
UTIL Plays
Courtland Sutton ($9,600): Since Week 8, Sutton has been Nix’s boo, garnering at least eight targets in every game with three in double digits. Sutton has finished with double-digit FPTS in all of those contests with three over 20 points. In the Week 6 game against the Chargers, Sutton hauled in four-of-six targets for 53 yards.
Stone Smartt ($4,200): Will Dissly was out in Week 15, so Smartt played a season-high 67% of the snaps, catching five-of-six targets for 50 yards. In Week 14, after Dissly suffered an injury, Smartt played 37% of the snaps and caught all three targets for 54 yards. Smartt should dominate the snaps at tight end for the Chargers once again, especially if Hayden Hurst (questionable, hip) is out. The Broncos have seen the second-most targets to opposing tight ends this season.
Kimani Vidal ($6,800): I feel gross about this and it’s a low-probability play, but he has more juice than Gus Edwards and is more involved in the passing game. Could this be the coming-out party for Vidal?
Fades
Quentin Johnston ($8,400): Over the last two weeks, Johnston has received seven and 10 targets, catching five in each while scoring a touchdown in both contests. I’m thinking that Surtain II will be on Johnston in this one, effectively neutralizing him.
THE OUTCOME
It’s these teams’ second time seeing each other and both coaches like to grind-it-out anyways, so I’m not expecting many points in this one. I do think the Chargers bounce back after two losses. I just have too much respect for Harbaugh.
Final Score: Chargers 24, Broncos 20
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (DEN @ LAC)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
