Week 16 (how the hell did we get here already) is upon us. We kick it off with a solid AFC West divisional matchup with the Broncos-Chargers. The Chargers won the first matchup 23-16 in Denver during Week 6 when LAC was a three-point favorite. We have a similar line this week, with LAC at -2.5 with a game total of 42 points. Let’s get into some of the bets I like on DraftKings Sportsbook that you can tail along with while watching Broncos-Chargers.
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Quentin Johnston under 3.5 receptions -110
It’s a very tough matchup for Justin Herbert and I don’t think he’ll be looking to make it harder. Patrick Surtain II was only targeted against once in Week 6 when these teams first met. But, he left that game with an injury and Herbert still only had 237 passing yards on 21 completions. Surtain is healthy and will be on Johnston and Josh Palmer. This should open up more for Ladd McConkey, who plays mostly in the slot, doing so on 67% of his snaps. Surtain doesn’t travel to the slot, having only done so on 16% of his snaps.
Because of this, Herbert will likely shy away from his outside receivers and focus more on McConkey and Will Dissly (if he’s active, if not, Stone Smartt). Johnston has been targeted heavily lately, drawing 17 targets over the last two weeks. I think this will drop dramatically this week and see him go under 3.5 receptions. I would look to take the over on McConkey and Dissly/Smartt.
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Courtland Sutton over 63.5 receiving yards -115
For the volume that Sutton receives, 63.5 yards doesn’t feel like a tall task to cross. Since Week 7 when Sutton didn’t see a single target, Bo Nix has made it a priority to get the ball to him. He’s averaging 9.4 targets, 6.4 catches and 85.8 yards per game since then. That gives him a massive 28% target share on the Broncos and 13.7 air yards per target. His success should continue in Week 16 against the Chargers. The Chargers run a lot of zone coverage and Bo Nix has been great in those situations. He has a 74% completion rate and a 106.7 passing rating, dating back to Week 5. Take the over on Sutton’s yardage prop with confidence this week.
Gus Edwards under 9.5 carries +115
Edwards has disappointed since taking over for the injured J.K. Dobbins. In three games without him, he hasn’t eclipsed 36 rushing yards and has taken a total of 24 carries. Last week, he saw his snap count drop to 14 against the Buccaneers. Granted, this was a blowout win for the Bucs, but that blowout didn’t occur until the second-half. The game went into the half with the score 17-13 in favor of the Chargers. Edwards is losing snaps to rookie Kimani Vidal, who only took three carries but was on the field for 35 snaps. It’s a very tough matchup for both Edwards and Vidal, so I’m not expecting a lot of running to take place to begin with. Edwards to go under 10 carries, which he’s done in two of the three games without Dobbins, is looking good at +115.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
