One of the major storylines last week in the NFL was the status of Patrick Mahomes. He injured his ankle in a victory over the Browns, and hobbled off the field. With Kansas City calling it a “high ankle sprain,” the outlook wasn’t great. Generally, players miss some time with this injury, and with the Chiefs playing on a short week, oddsmakers opened KC a short home underdog of +1.5 — a number you’d never see if we knew with certainty Mahomes would be playing.
Part of the speculation wasn’t just that the Chiefs had six days between games, but they also have to turn around and play on a short week again, facing the Steelers on Wednesday (Christmas Day). If there were a time to sit Mahomes a game, Saturday against Houston would be it. Early in the week, that number grew to KC +2.5, as you’d expect given the schedule.
However, Tuesday has provided a pretty strong indication that Mahomes may in fact be out there on Saturday afternoon against the Texans. Mahomes spoke to the media, which generally indicates that player is in line to start the upcoming game. If Kansas City were leaning toward giving Carson Wentz the nod, he would’ve been up at the podium. Mahomes indicated that his ankle is healing quicker than expected, and it seems that the Chiefs are currently planning to have their franchise player out there in Week 16. The line quickly moved from 2.5 to 1.5.
The Texans just locked up their division with a win over the Dolphins, and now have to travel to Arrowhead Stadium to face a team that might be more desperate in this game. The Chiefs are in the drivers seat for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but they need to continue winning. Every time Mahomes is priced as an underdog we hear the numbers about how spectacular he’s been, but I don’t think we need to go over those here. If Mahomes is in fact ruled in, the line will continue to move, and KC will go off the favorite.
I think that’ll be the case as the week continues. The Texans have a strong defense, so while Mahomes should play, he’ll be hobbled. This game should be a grind, but maybe even more so for Houston. While it seems somewhat inexplicable, the Texans just haven’t been the same team offensively that they were down the stretch in 2023. Now they have to go on the road to one of the toughest places to play on a short week. The Chiefs rank top-five in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 18.5 points per game.
I’ll take Kansas City to gut this one out at home, and am purposely getting in early while priced as dogs.
The Play: Chiefs ML (+105) – 2-units
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