The Atlanta Falcons are reeling, having lost four straight games and ceding first place in the NFC South to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. To make matters tougher for Atlanta, Tampa Bay pulled off an upset road victory on Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers to pull a game and a half ahead of the Falcons.
However, Atlanta should have an easy game tonight on Monday Night Football as it takes on a Las Vegas Raiders team that is so bad even its own head coach, Antonio Pierce, called it “the worst team in football”. The Raiders already lost starting quarterback Gardner Minshew II in November and are unlikely to have backup Aidan O’Connell, who’s officially questionable with a bone bruise in his knee. With O’Connell not participating in practice all week, Las Vegas looks set to start third-stringer Desmond Ridder, a former Falcons starter.
The Raiders matchup should provide an excellent opportunity for Bijan Robinson, a 2023 first-round pick who followed up a strong rookie season with an even better sophomore campaign. Robinson has taken his 215 carries for 977 yards and eight touchdowns and added 53 catches for 401 yards and an additional score. He’s Pro Football Focus’ second-ranked running back, four slots ahead of his teammate Tyler Allgeier.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Falcons are six-point favorites, and the point total is set at 44.5. Below, I’ve identified my favorite prop bets centered around Robinson.
Best Bijan Robinson Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Bijan Robinson U114.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
For all of their weaknesses, the Raiders are actually decent in run defense. Las Vegas has allowed opposing backs to rack up 1,529 rushing yards so far this season, fewer than all but 11 teams. They’ve also given up only 12 scores, tied for the tenth-fewest in the league. The Raiders’ run defense isn’t elite by any means, but it’s about league-average. The loss of star edge rusher Maxx Crosby will hurt its performance at least somewhat, but perhaps not enough to allow Robinson to put up gaudy numbers.
I would feel much more confident in Robinson’s ability to put up numbers if O’Connell is able to play, but the expectation is that it will be Ridder. While both Minshew and O’Connell are gunslingers and have made their careers primarily off of raw arm talent, offenses have typically been more conservative with Ridder under center.
In 62 snaps this season, Ridder has thrown 44 passes, but most have been short, with an average of just 5.9 air yards per attempt. Last year, when Ridder made 13 starts for Atlanta, the Falcons called passes on just 52.2% of plays, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. Fewer passes, and shorter passes, might mean the Raiders will extend possessions more than normal, limiting Robinson’s ability to inflict damage.
Bijan Robinson O17.5 Rush Attempts (-120)
I do think Robinson garners just enough volume to hit his over for rushing attempts, even if Las Vegas slows the pace of the game down. He has gotten at least 17 carries in four of his last five games, and although the Raiders are the tenth-least frequently targeted team on the ground, Atlanta still operates a relatively run-heavy offense, throwing on only 56.6% of plays.
The Falcons’ propensity to run has also increased slightly in recent weeks as veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins has really struggled, throwing no touchdowns and eight interceptions in his past four games. If Cousins can’t turn it around against a below-average Raiders secondary, Atlanta head coach Raheem Morris might opt for a bigger dose of Robinson instead of benching Cousins for first-round pick Michael Penix Jr.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
