Week 16. Get those simulation machines working overtime because there are not many more slates to try and stack the green. Know what I mean? Go pamper your queen or take care of your husband figurine because we must buckle down and get into the routine of sipping caffeine and gluing our eyes to the tab-infested screens. I know, I know. It sounds obscene and, frankly, likely requires friends to intervene, especially if one takes out a lien. But we live this life of trying to forecast the unforseen. Stand up and salute like a marine.
There are 11 games on the main slate. DraftKings Sportsbook has seven games with an O/U of at least 45: PHI/WAS (45.5), NE/BUF (46.5), CLE/CIN (48), DET/CHI (46.5), LAR/NYJ (46.5), ARI/CAR (47) and SF/MIA (46). There is one game with a total of 40 or below: JAX/LVR (40).
There are two double-digit spread favorites: BUF -14 over NE and ATL -10 over NYG. There are three games within a field goal: PHI -3 over WAS, MIA -1.5 over SF and LVR -1 over JAX.
DISCLAIMER: This piece is written early in the week, so it won’t factor in injuries or lineup changes that occur closer to Sunday.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots ($8,700) – I’m not crazy about Allen this week, but if paying up, he is the likely guy. Over the last two weeks, he’s gone for 44.28 and 54.88 FPTS. No one else can match that ceiling. That said, the Lions and Rams were both able to score over 40 points, forcing Allen to remain aggressive. I don’t forsee the Patriots being able to replicate that. The floor is still very high, though, as Allen has scored at least 20 FPTS in nine straight games. Two of those games had the Bills winning by over 20 points, so Allen will likely still put up points. If he scores in the 20s, it’s probably a disappointing outcome, but he’s always in play to go 30 or more.
Other Options – Jalen Hurts ($7,800), Joe Burrow ($7,500)
Value
Editor’s Note: Falcons QB Kirk Cousins has been benched for rookie Michael Penix Jr., per head coach Raheem Morris.
Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants ($5,500) – Cousins hasn’t been good this season, putting up over 20 FPTS only twice this season. He has three single-digit FPTS games, with two of those coming in the last three weeks. The matchups have been tough, though. Against Tampa Bay, a team that has allowed the ninth-highest EPA per dropback, Cousins went for 28.64 and 38.36 FPTS. The Giants have allowed the sixth-highest EPA per dropback and just allowed five passing touchdowns to Lamar Jackson. It is a shorter week for Atlanta since they are playing Monday night, but it’s against the Raiders and they face the Giants at home in Week 16.
Other Options – Jameis Winston ($5,300), Mac Jones ($5,200)
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Running Back
Stud
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers ($7,100) – There are some really good options up top at the running back position. Gibbs may be highly rostered due to the David Montgomery injury, and the matchup against the Bears is a good one. I do prefer Conner, though, because his matchup is even better, as the Panthers have allowed the third-most EPA per carry, the most yards per carry and the second-most rushing touchdowns. Conner has put up 22.2 and 33.8 FPTS over the last two games, is $400 cheaper than Gibbs and could be lower owned.
Other Options – Saquon Barkley ($8,300), Bijan Robinson ($8,100), Chase Brown ($7,700), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500), De’Von Achane ($7,400), James Cook ($7,000)
Value
Jerome Ford, New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals ($5,600) – With Nick Chubb done for the season, Ford should return to alpha status for the Browns. To start the season, he was “The Guy” and put up double-digit FPTS in three of the first four games. But those were with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. With Jameis Winston, the offense is more explosive and the Browns may be chasing points against a hot Bengals team. In Week 15, Ford finished with 18.4 FPTS.
Other Options – Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,900)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Brian Thomas Jr., Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders ($6,300) – Over the last three games, with Mac Jones at quarterback, Thomas has been peppered with 10, 12 and 14 targets. He’s increased the number of catches and receiving yards every week. He’s coming off a 35.5-FPT performance and finished with 16.6, 18.7 and 13.6 FPTS in the prior three games. This game will be in a dome, so there are no weather concerns, and it will likely be a pseudo home game as Jags fans will saunter to Vegas and fill the stadium. In addition, the Raiders have allowed the third-most EPA per dropback.
Other Options – Ja’Marr Chase ($8,500), Puka Nacua ($8,000), Davante Adams ($7,100), Tee Higgins ($6,800), Jerry Jeudy ($6,700), Drake London ($6,400), Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,300), Malik Nabers ($6,100)
Value
Malik Washington, Carolina Panthers vs. San Francisco 49ers ($3,700) – Odell Beckham Jr. was released by the Dolphins, so Washington is firmly entrenched as the number three receiver. He had been playing around 40% of the snaps, but saw an increase to 60% in Week 15. Jaylen Waddle also suffered an injury, so that likely added some playing time. Waddle’s status is up-in-the-air for Week 16, so there’s some upside that Washington gets more playing time. He caught five-of-six targets for 52 yards in Week 15. He also has three rushing attempts on the season.
Other Options – Jauan Jennings ($5,900), Jakobi Meyers ($5,800), Adam Thielen ($5,600), Darnell Mooney ($5,400), Jalen Coker ($4,200)
Tight End
Stud
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers ($6,200) – McBride scored single-digit FPTS in two of the first three games of the season. Since then, he’s scored at least 10 FPTS in all, with three over 20 FPTS, all without scoring a touchdown. He’s received double-digit targets five times, with four of those in the most recent games. The Panthers have allowed the second-most FPTS to tight ends on average and have allowed the most touchdowns. McBride finally scores one this week!
Other Options – Brock Bowers ($6,500), George Kittle ($6,000), Sam LaPorta ($4,700), Hunter Henry ($4,200)
Value
Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders ($3,400) – Strange was selected in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft, so the Jaguars obviously thought highly of him. While he’s been playing, Strange has taken a back seat to Evan Engram when he’s been on the field. Well, Engram is done for the season, so it should be the Strange show from now on. In Week 15, Strange received 12 targets and caught 11 for 73 yards. The Raiders have allowed the third-most FPTS to tight ends on average.
Other Options – Jordan Akins ($3,000) if Njoku is out
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Vikings DST at Seattle Seahawks ($3,500) – There’s a chance that Sam Howell starts for the Seahawks, which has Scooby going Ruh Roh. Minnesota blitzes at the highest rate in the league and has intercepted a league-leading 20 passes. The unit has also forced seven fumbles, racked up 20 sacks and scored three touchdowns.
Other Options – Falcons DST ($3,700)
Value
Colts DST vs. Tennessee Titans ($3,000) – The Colts get to face either Will Levis or Mason Rudolph. Levis has thrown 12 interceptions and been sacked 40 times. Rudolph has throw five interceptions and been sacked six times in five games. The Colts have scored double-digit FPTS three times this season, although they only mustered three FPTS when these teams met back in Week 6.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
