Well, it appears we’ve reached that weird time of year where the NFL just starts having random games on different days. Saturday? That’s now for professional football. Wednesday? If that’s when Christmas happens to fall. Specific to this evening, we’ve got a pair of Monday Night Football games for you to enjoy.
In this space, I’ll be breaking down Bears-Vikings. Let’s dive in from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $300K Monday Night Showdown [$100K to 1st] (CHI @ MIN)
For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Network app. You also can follow DK Network on Twitter @dknetwork.
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Aaron Jones ($15,000 CP) – When in doubt, roll with the bell cow running back for the seven-point home favorite. Jones has been a vital element of the Vikings’ offense all season long. In fact, he entered Week 15 with 234 touches — the 11th-most of any individual player in the NFL. There’s simply no doubt who is the No. 1 running back in Minnesota. Jones has logged a healthy 62.4% snap share so far this season and that’s translated into 1,195 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns. He’s also seen a whopping 70.0% of his team’s carries inside the opponent’s 10-yard line, which means we’re not likely getting “vultured” by Cam Akers ($3,000) or a Sam Darnold ($10,600) quarterback sneak at the goal line. When Jones faced off with the Bears in Week 12, he registered 129 yards and 23.9 FPTS on 25 touches. I’m envisioning a similar script on Monday against a defense surrendering the fifth-most FPTS per game to opposing backfields.
DJ Moore ($12,000 CP) – It hasn’t been the most consistent campaign for Moore, but as Caleb Williams ($9,600) has garnered more and more experience, the results have gotten better. To wit, since the beginning of Week 11, Moore is averaging a very solid 19.6 FPTS per game. This stretch has coincided with a spike in opportunities for the veteran, as Moore saw 38 targets from Week 11 to Week 14 — the third-most by any wide receiver, trailing only Puka Nacua and Ja’Marr Chase. Pretty good company to keep. Moore also owns the highest touchdown expectancy of any Chicago pass-catcher, as his 16 red zone targets this season not only lead the team by a healthy margin, but sit in a tie for the eighth-most in the NFL. The Vikings’ secondary is conceding the most FPTS per contest to opposing WRs. This could be a huge night for Moore. It certainly doesn’t hurt that he dropped a season-best 106 receiving yards on Minnesota less than a month ago, either.
FLEX Plays
Rome Odunze ($6,400) – The Vikings are what we like to call a “funnel” defense. Basically, that just means a unit that entices an opposing offense to do one thing based on well they defend a different thing. In the case of Minnesota, they funnel teams towards the air. Some of this is script-based — the Vikings have been winning a lot of games this year — but it’s also due to how well Minnesota stops the run. Coming into Week 15, the Vikings have allowed an NFC-low 87.2 rushing yards per contest. By contrast, they’re giving up an NFC-high 250.6 passing yards per game. That’s a long-winded way of saying to keep exploiting assets in the Bears aerial attack. I don’t expect Odunze to score a pair of touchdowns for a second straight week, yet the rookie wideout should see his share of looks on Monday. Odunze is second on the team in red zone targets (12) and he saw 10 targets overall when these two squads met in Week 12.
T.J. Hockenson ($5,800) – The Hockenson breakout game is coming. I know it is. I guess you could argue that it already happened in Week 12 when the tight end finished with 114 yards on seven receptions against this same Bears secondary, but the oddest thing about Hockenson’s return from a major knee injury has been his inability to get into the end zone. Despite 27 receptions in six contests, Hockenson has yet to find pay dirt. I think that changes on Monday night. It’s not like all of Hockenson’s opportunities have been low-leverage. In fact, the former first-round pick has a pair of red zone targets in each of Minnesota’s past two games. Then there’s the matchup. Chicago has been eaten alive by opposing TEs the past three weeks, starting with Hockenson’s own performance at Soldier Field. That was followed by Sam LaPorta scoring twice on Thanksgiving. That was followed by George Kittle amassing 151 receiving yards last Sunday. The Bears can not stop a good tight end.
Fades
D’Andre Swift ($7,600) – As stated above, the Vikings are not a team you try and run on. Also, on the list of running backs I’d trust to try and accomplish the feat, Swift would rank pretty far towards the bottom. It’s been an underwhelming season for the veteran back, with just a single 100-yard rushing performance and just a single touchdown since the beginning of Week 9. Among the 26 RBs who have seen at least 50% of their team’s offensive snaps, Swift sits 21st in PPR points per touch (0.75). It hasn’t been pretty. Add in that Swift has been dealing with a groin injury for the last two weeks and it’s difficult to come up with an argument to believe in the 25-year-old. I’ll gladly pass.
THE OUTCOME
While the Bears were absolutely outclassed by the 49ers last week, I’m inclined to take the points in tonight’s contest. Chicago is actually 7-5-1 ATS this season and its managed to keep things close in every divisional matchup its played. The Bears lost by three points to the Lions, three points to the Vikings and by a single point to the Packers in Week 11. I think they keep it within a touchdown this evening.
Final Score: Minnesota 27, Chicago 21
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $300K Monday Night Showdown [$100K to 1st] (CHI @ MIN)
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
