The Week 15 finale is here with not one, but two Monday Night Football games kicking off. This will put an exclamation point on an already exciting week of football.
In the opening game, the Minnesota Vikings will host the Chicago Bears. The Vikings are now just a half-game back from the Detroit Lions in the divisional race and seeding is still up for grabs following the numerous injuries for Detroit. The opposite is true for the Chicago Bears who have fallen well short of expectations.
In the second matchup of the night, the Las Vegas Raiders will host the Atlanta Falcons. Things have gone from bad to worse for the Raiders who enter with a 2-11 record and following the news of the season-ending injury to Maxx Crosby. This will be a huge matchup for the Falcons as they desperately look to keep their playoff hopes alive and are coming off a stretch of frustrating games.
The double-header presents plenty more options for ways to get involved in the action. One of the more unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Football! In this article, we will look at my top Pick6 choices across both matchups and simply pick higher or lower on the set statistic for each player.
T.J. Hockenson More Than 44.5 Receiving Yards
T.J. Hockenson did not make his season debut until Week 9 this year, as he recovered from his ACL tear, but has caught up to speed rather quickly. Across the six games he has played, Hockenson has tallied 27 receptions for 299 receiving yards.
This will be the second matchup between the Vikings and Bears this season. Hockenson had his best performance of the season in the first matchup, recording seven receptions for 114 yards. Chicago has struggled to defend tight ends this season and is giving up an average of 62.6 receiving yards per game on the season overall.
Hockenson has tallied at least two receptions in every game since he returned and has been targeted at least three times in each matchup. He may not reach the same output he tallied in Week 12, but this is an area the Vikings will have circled on their scouting report. Just last week they allowed six receptions for 151 yards to George Kittle. Hockenson has recorded more than 44.5 receiving yards in three of the six games this season and has a favorable matchup tonight. Expect the Vikings to give him plenty of offensive opportunities and for the 27-year-old to record more than 44.5 receiving yards again tonight.
D’Andre Swift Less Than 50.5 Rushing Yards
Through the opening 13 games, D’Andre Swift has carried the ball 193 times for 742 yards and five touchdowns. While he has recorded at least 10 rush attempts per game, Swift’s efficiency in these opportunities has been increasingly concerning. The Georgia product is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry this season, which ranks 42nd in the NFL.
The Vikings’ defense has been solid across the board this year and especially effective against the run. They rank fourth in points allowed and 15th in yards given up. In addition, they rank second in rushing yards allowed, third in rushing touchdowns conceded, and third in net yards per rush attempt.
Smith has been held to less than 50.5 rushing yards in three consecutive games leading into this matchup and in six of the 13 games overall. The Vikings have looked like a much more complete football team compared to the Bears, and if Minnesota can grab an early lead these rushing opportunities will be limited for Swift. With a strong defense against him and Swift showing signs of struggle, count on him to record less than 50.5 rushing yards for the fourth consecutive week.
Aaron Jones Sr. More Than 67.5 Rushing Yards
Aaron Jones hopped across the NFC North this off-season to join the Vikings after spending the first seven seasons of his career with the Packers. The veteran has produced at a high level for the team and is averaging 68.7 rushing yards per game this year. Overall he has received 197 carries which he has converted into 893 rushing yards and four touchdowns.
There are only six teams in the NFL that are allowing more rushing yards than the Bears this season. In recent weeks Isaac Guerendo ran for 78 yards, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gobbs rushed for 88 and 87 yards, and Josh Jacobs recorded 76 yards against Chicago. These teams also faced off in week 12 with Jones recording a season-high 106 rushing yards.
Jones may especially play a factor in this game if the Vikings can take an early lead and rely on the rushing game to bleed out the clock. He has rushed for more than 67.5 rushing yards in seven of the 13 games this season. With a struggling defense in front of him and the game script in his favor, count on Jones to add to this total and rush for at least 68 yards tonight.
Bijan Robinson More Than 85.5 Rushing Yards
Bijan Robinson has been given more freedom in the Falcons’ offense this season and the team has benefitted greatly. Through just 13 games he has already outperformed last year’s output for carries, rushing yards, and touchdowns. Overall he has carried the ball 215 times for 977 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns while also being active in the passing attack.
Looking at this matchup, the Raiders rank 31st in points allowed and 12th in yards given up. They rank 13th in rushing yards allowed, 14th in rushing touchdowns conceded, and 15th in net yards per rush attempt. Las Vegas has allowed 109+ total rushing yards in eight of the 13 games this season and Robinson is right near the top of the most talented running backs they have faced.
Atlanta is in desperate need of a victory as they attempt to keep their playoff hopes alive. Expect them to keep the full playbook open and use Robinson heavily as he is the most dangerous offensive weapon on the roster. This should especially be the case with the recent struggles of Kirk Cousins who has not thrown for a touchdown across the past four weeks. Robinson also will benefit if the Falcons can take the lead and look to control the clock by keeping the ball on the ground. He has run for more than 85.5 rushing yards in seven of the 13 games this season and has the benefit of a favorable matchup.
Caleb Williams More Than 33.5 Pass Attempts
The Chicago Bears’ attempt at preparing a contending roster with Caleb Williams as the final addition has blown up in their face in a major way. While their hopes for the season are out the window, the sole focus of the organization for the remainder of the year is for Williams to continue developing. The first-overall pick has had plenty of ups and downs this year, but expect him to be ready to air it out in primetime tonight.
So far this season Williams has thrown the ball 434 times which has resulted in 2,746 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and five interceptions. He is averaging 33.4 pass attempts per game and has thrown for more than this number five times. In the first matchup against the Vikings, Williams aired the ball out 47 times. He also has attempted as many as 52 pass attempts in a game this season.
Minnesota enters with an 11-2 record and is still playing for playoff seeding. Expect them to enter this matchup with a focused game plan and grab a lead early on. This will lead to the Bears playing from behind and additional opportunities for their franchise quarterback. While it may not be the cleanest pathway to getting there, expect Williams to have plenty of opportunities as he tries to will his team to remain in the game. Count on him to tally more than 33.5 pass attempts for the sixth time this season and the second time against the Vikings.
Kyle Pitts More Than 2.5 Receptions
Kyle Pitts has yet to consistently live up to the hype since he was selected with the fourth overall pick in the 2021 draft. The talent level is clear, but Pitts has struggled to string together consistent performances. He enters tonight’s matchup with just two combined receptions across the past three weeks despite being targeted 11 times. Overall this year, he has tallied 60 receptions for 508 yards and three touchdowns.
Luckily, this is a matchup made for tight-end success. Las Vegas has allowed 77 receptions to tight ends this season which is the third-most in the NFL. Just last week, Cade Otton tallied three receptions for 70 yards. The week prior, Travis Kelce tallied seven receptions for 68 yards while Noah Gray added four receptions for 58 yards. Atlanta will be looking to capitalize on this and if he cannot have success in this matchup there may need to be some deeper discussion surrounding Pitts.
Expect this to be the breakout opportunity Pitts has been waiting for. He has tallied at least three receptions in seven of the 13 games including against much tougher opponents. Look for there to be a conscious effort by the Falcons to target Pitts due to it being a weakness in the Raiders’ defense and for him to record more than 2.5 receptions for the eighth time this season.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (“Pick Set”) of at least two players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must select players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.Must be at least 18 years or older. Higher age limits may apply in some states. Eligibility restrictions apply. Valid only in states where DraftKings Pick6 operates. Void where prohibited. For entertainment purposes only. Winning a contest on DraftKings depends on knowledge and exercise of skill. See terms at pick6.draftkings.com.
