The Green Bay Packers head to Seattle to face the Seahawks as the Sunday Night Football capstone to an electric slate of Week 15 games. These two playoff-hopefuls have plenty of fantasy and DFS depth, which makes the NFL Showdown $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (GB @ SEA) contest all the juicier. We love the 1.5x boost to Captain’s Picks for these Showdown contests, and there are almost too many options to choose just one. My top two picks, however, are Jayden Reed ($12,000 as Captain’s Pick) for the Packers and Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($13,200 as Captain’s Pick) for the Seahawks.
While I entertained the idea of starting both quarterbacks, I do think Josh Jacobs and Zach Charbonnet are going to end up taking some paydirt opportunity from Jordan Love and Geno Smith in the red area. That’s precisely why I think the play tonight is to back the big-play threat wide receivers with your 1.5x slots.
Let’s break it down.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba as your Captain’s Pick
I’m buying into the PPR WR6 season that JSN is hanging on the league right now. Check out this insight from NFL Next Gen Stats re. Smith-Njigba’s wild success against man coverage.
Let’s match it with another insight from NGS: entering Week 14, 76.4% of his snaps are from the slot in 2024, up from 64.9% last season. Even better? Smith-Njigba air yards per target (AY/t) figure this season is 9.5, up 3.3 yards increase from AY/t figure in 2023 (6.2).
While he’s been explosive (particularly in the games against the Patriots and the Rams), what we love for JSN’s as a Captain is his consistency: he’s logged over 69 yards in his last six games. He’s also churned out the most yards after the catch (YAC) for the Seahawks this year, with 391 yards.
I like this streak to keep going, and I think there’s potential 2+ TD potential for JSN tonight against Green Bay’s slot corners.
Jayden Reed as your Hail-Mary alternative
Right. So let’s get this out of the way first: I realize this falls on the high-risk side of a Captain’s pick. But what better time for a squeaky wheel to get the grease than a primetime matchup with NFC playoff-picture implications all over the place.
So, yes, there’s a bit of soft analysis to this. Other than Josh Jacobs—and perhaps arguably not even then—Jayden Reed is the most talented athlete on the Packers. And this is just the sort of game, even despite the presence of elite slot cornerback Devon Witherspoon, when I’d be looking to back Reed’s rushing + receiving yards line on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Sure, there’s a veritable buffet of options for Jordan Love to find open tonight, but the Seahawks are prone to allowing some explosiveness to their opponents. So far this season, they’ve allowed 52 passing plays—albeit, among the league’s fewest—for 15+ yards. This is the time of year when guys like Reed, who see both carries and targets, are going to get more touches manufactured for them.
Don’t be surprised if Reed gets the ball early and often, such that 1.5x returns on his production could set your Showdown lineups for some huge numbers.
Lineup Construction
This was my ideal lineup construction above. I’m looking to have JSN and Reed both in my lineup tonight, and if I’m able to get a DK Metcalf/Geno Smith stack, too, I’m all over it.
Watson and Fant are my two FLEX plays, but if you start Reed as your FLEX, you’d be able to swap Fant for Kraft, which would feel more balanced on paper. This is my ideal lineup, however, with Fant as the biggest value.
Note, also, that the Seahawks’ guards, Laken Tomlinson and Anthony Bradford, have each given up plenty of one-on-one sacks, this year. So if you can find an extra $1,000 in salary, you’d be able to get Packers D/ST ($4,600).
DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (GB @ SEA).
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
