The Browns are hosting the Chiefs in Cleveland on Sunday of Week 15. Here are some Travis Kelce prop bets to consider at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Travis Kelce Prop Bets
Here are Travis Kelce’s current prop bet odds at DraftKings Sportsbook: o/u 5.5 receptions and o/u 56.5 receiving yards. Kelce is +145 to score a touchdown, +1100 to score 2+ touchdowns, and +750 to score the first touchdown of the game.
Travis Kelce is having a down year by his standards. That being said, he still ranks 2nd among all tight ends in receptions and fifth among tight ends in receiving yards. However, he does only have two touchdowns which is way down by his standards.
The entire Chiefs offense is having productivity issues. Since Week 10, Kansas City ranks 11th in offensive EPA/play and 13th in offensive success rate. As Isiah Pacheco continues to ramp up activity, the Chiefs should become a more run-heavy team. That will take away targets from Travis Kelce, which are already limited.
The Browns play a specific brand of defense that is almost the opposite of a bend-don’t-break style of defense. They rank 30th in yards per pass attempt allowed and 18th in defensive EPA/pass but 4th in dropback success rate. That means they create a lot of incompletions and negative plays, but also give up a lot of deep shots over the top. Overall, the Browns allow the least amount of completions per game of any defense in the league.
Part of the reason that there are so few completions against the Browns, is teams love to run against Cleveland. They have a dangerous pass rush, led by Myles Garrett, and a good secondary, but they struggle to stop the run. They rank 18th in defensive EPA/rush and 20th in yards per rush attempt allowed. The Browns are 24th in the league in opponent rush play percentage. That means teams are running the ball against them at a really high rate.
My favorite prop bet for Travis Kelce is for him to go under 5.5 receptions. You can get this prop at plus-money at DraftKings Sportsbook and that provides a lot of value. Kelce has gone under this number in six of 13 games this season so it’s about a 50/50 disparity this season. This is also a bad matchup for Kelce. He is a possession receiver who likes to move the sticks. That is what the Browns are very good at limiting. DeAndre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy in the open field are the dangerous weapons to exploit what Cleveland struggles to defend. The Browns should take away Kelce and make someone else beat them, resulting in Kelce going under this prop.
Pick: Travis Kelce u5.5 Receptions (+105)
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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