To cap off the Week 15 NFL Sunday slate, the Green Bay Packers will face the Seattle Seahawks with playoff implications on the line for both teams.
Seattle enters with an 8-5 record and holds a half-game lead over the Rams in the NFC West. They control their playoff destiny and enter this matchup riding a four-game winning streak.
Green Bay holds a record of 9-4 but is in third place in the NFC North and has their eyes on a Wild Card spot. They have a rest advantage as they played the Lions on Thursday Night Football last week. The Packers have won seven of their last nine games with both losses coming at the hands of Detroit.
The Packers enter this game as 3-point favorites and -148 on the moneyline. The Seahawks are +124 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 46.5 points.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been one of the more notable storylines surrounding Seattle. The Ohio State product has been the Seahawks’ best wide receiver and has taken the next step in his development. With the stage fully set here is my top prop bet for the 22-year-old.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Prop Bets
DraftKings Sportsbook has Smith-Njigba’s props set at o/u 5.5 receptions, 64.5 receiving yards, his longest reception o/u 22.5 yards, and holds +195 odds for an anytime touchdown.
The Pick: Longest Reception Under 22.5 Receiving Yards
Through the opening 13 games, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has recorded 75 receptions for 911 yards and five touchdowns. He is averaging 70.1 receiving yards per game and leads the Seahawks in each receiving category. In comparison, DK Metcalf has tallied 54 receptions for 812 yards and three touchdowns this year.
While the difference in production is clear, don’t be so quick to believe the baton has been passed to Smith-Njigba as the lead wide receiver. Since the Week 10 bye, Metcalf is seeing 7.3 targets per game compared to 6.8 for Smith-Njigba. The second-year wideout has done more with his opportunities, but Metcalf remains the big play threat within the offense. Across this same period, Metcalf has seen 37.9 more air yards on these passes.
Looking at the Packers’ defense, they rank ninth in points allowed and 13th in yards given up. However, they rank 22nd in passing yards allowed, 18th in passing touchdowns conceded, and 17th in net yards per pass attempt.
Expect the Seahawks to still have some success throwing some football but don’t count on Smith-Njigba to play to be looked at as the big play guy. You can read my beliefs in Metcalf receiving these opportunities in the SNF best bets article here. From the season-long standpoint, Metcalf is averaging 15.0 yards per catch compared to 12.1 for Smith-Njigba.
Looking at Smith-Njigba’s big play production this year, his longest catch has been held under 22.5 yards in eight of the 13 games. He has reliable hands and will see regular targets, but look for the Seahawks to utilize Metcalf on the deep pass opportunities. Count on the Ohio State for him to be held under 22.5 yards on his biggest gain for the ninth time this season tonight.
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