Wouldn’t it be fitting if the 2024 season ended with a Super Bowl matchup between two of the league’s most cursed franchises?
Well, it’s a real possibility. The Detroit Lions — the only NFC team never to make the Super Bowl — are favored to win the conference at +125. While the Buffalo Bills — losers of four consecutive Super Bowls in the 1990’s — have the second-shortest odds in the AFC.
The two teams will meet Sunday in Detroit at 4:25 p.m. ET in what could be a Super Bowl LIX preview. The Lions enter as 2.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook and the point total is set to 54.5. Below, I’ve outlined my favorite prop bets in Week 15’s most highly-anticipated matchup.
Josh Allen Over 256.5 Passing Yards (-115)
After knocking on the door with three top-five MVP finishes in the past four years, this season may finally be Josh Allen’s time. The Bills quarterback is in the midst of an incredible season, completing 64.1% of his passes for 3,033 yards, 23 touchdowns, and only five picks. He currently is the odds-on favorite to bring home the trophy, with -400 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Allen should have the opportunity to put up big counting stats in what should be a shootout, even with how good the Detroit defense is. Lions quarterback Jared Goff has the third-shortest MVP odds in football this year, and for good reason; he’s completed 72.4% of his passes for 3,265 yards, and 25 touchdown passes. Detroit’s high-powered aerial attack should rack up points and force Allen to throw the ball to keep up.
Allen has only played in seven games this season that were decided by 10 or fewer points, but in those tight contests, he averaged 29.4 passing attempts per game, compared to only 27 attempts per game in blowouts. With Sunday’s matchup expected to be close, Allen should have free rein to fire away. He has passed for at least 257 yards in five of his last seven contests, and looks like a good bet to do so again on Sunday.
David Montgomery Over 78.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
With Jahmyr Gibbs and veteran David Montgomery, the Lions have the most potent rushing duo in the league. Gibbs has recorded 212 touches, 1,328 yards, and 12 total touchdowns this season, while Montgomery has taken his 212 for 1,081 yards and an addition 12 scores, all the ground.
Neither running back should face too much resistance this week against a soft Bills defense that has allowed running backs to go for 4.7 yards per carry this season, the seventh-worst rate in football. Buffalo has been susceptible to the occasional big play, allowing 11 rushes of 20+ yards and three rushes of 40+, both top-ten marks in the league. Perhaps the Lions won’t be pounding the ground game much if Allen puts up points and forces Goff to throw, but I still like both running backs in tomorrow’s matchup.
Of the two, I slightly prefer Montgomery on Sunday. He’s the slightly higher-rated of the two, according to Pro Football Focus. Also, he has had more consistent involvement in the passing game than Gibbs, even though the latter has hauled in two more receptions. Montgomery has received at least one target in every game this season, while Gibbs has had two games in which Goff did not throw to him at all.
In a game where passing is likely to take center stage, Montgomery is the slightly safer option. He has topped 79 scrimmage yards in four of his last six games.
Jameson Williams 60+ Receiving Yards (+125)
In addition to the Lions’ high-powered running back duo, they also have a pair of standout wide receivers in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. St. Brown, a first-team All-Pro in 2023, has been the better of the two, with 81 catches, 863 yards, and nine scores, but Williams has had a breakout third season as well, adding 39 catches, 710 yards, and four scores of his own. The Alabama product is finally living up to the potential that caused Detroit to draft him 12th overall in 2022.
Of the two, I back Williams to have a big game on Sunday. The Bills’ top cornerback, Christian Benford, grades as one of the best players in the game and will likely focus on slowing St. Brown down. A below-average performance by St. Brown would open up an opportunity for Williams to take advantage of Buffalo’s secondary on the other side of the field. Whoever draws the Williams assignment — whether it’s Rasul Douglas, currently questionable to play with a knee injury, or someone else — would be a significant downgrade from Benford.
Plus, I expect this to be a high-scoring shootout with both quarterbacks firing away. St. Brown will get his share of the spoils, but Williams, whose 19.0% target share ranks second on the Lions, should get enough looks to top 60 yards, a number he has reached seven times this season, including three of his last four games.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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