Week 15 got off to a quiet start as the Los Angeles Rams took down the San Francisco 49ers 12-6 in a snoozefest on Thursday Night Football in which neither team scored a touchdown. There is a jam-packed Sunday slate with the NFL playoffs on the horizon and every game holding some more significance.
All teams are done with their bye weeks, and the full focus is on the season’s home stretch. Fantasy football playoffs are starting up in most leagues, and DraftKings DFS options continue to present plenty of opportunities to win. With lineup choices meaning more than ever, here is a breakdown of some players with a great opportunity to outperform their price point. Be sure to get some superstars in your lineup, but here are some lower-budget names who could help you win your competitions!
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Quarterbacks:
Jameis Winston ($5,500)
A familiar face on our value list, Jameis Winston is set to face the Kansas City Chiefs this week. Winston has changed the outlook of the Browns’ offense greatly. For better or for worse, the former number-one overall pick has no fear of airing it out in any circumstance. While this has been problematic for Winston throughout his career, this is a greater concern for the outlook for winning football games than it impacts the fantasy football perspective.
Winston has finished as a top 12 quarterback in four of his six weeks as a starter including being the top fantasy quarterback two weeks ago. Among 39 qualifying quarterbacks since Week 8, Winston ranks second in passing yards per game, eighth in passing touchdowns, and fourth in passing attempts.
The Chiefs defense has particularly struggled defending the pass this season. Overall they rank 21st in passing yards allowed and 14th in passing touchdowns given up. These numbers have gotten worse as the season has progressed with Kansas City ranking 24th in passing touchdowns conceded, 20th in passing yards allowed, and are allowing the seventh-highest passer rating since Week 9.
Expect more of the same from Winston as he continues to operate with his gun-slinging mentality against a defense that has shown signs of struggle. Look for him to outperform his $5,500 price point as the 17th most expensive quarterback and be a starting caliber fantasy football QB this week.
Bryce Young ($5,300)
It has been a rocky start to the young career of Bryce Young, but the Alabama product looks to finally be back on track. The former number one overall pick has looked like a different player since returning to the starting QB role and Carolina’s full focus is for Young to remain on his positive developmental path for the remainder of the season. Looking at his DraftKings fantasy production across the past four weeks, Young has recorded 12.0, 16.5, 23.6, and 12.5 fantasy points.
He has a great chance for his best performance of the season and possibly his NFL career as the Panthers play the Cowboys this week. Dallas’ season turned to a disaster quickly this year and there continue to be notable concerns with the defense. On the season overall, the Cowboys rank 31st in points allowed and 26th in yards given up. Looking at their pass defense, Dallas ranks 23rd in passing yards conceded, 20th in passing touchdowns allowed, and 30th in net yards per pass attempt. Since week nine they have allowed the seventh-highest yards per pass attempt and sixth-most passing touchdowns.
The tape has been better than the overall production, but Young has shown tangible steps toward improvement and this is a great matchup he can capitalize on. Expect a strong performance from the Panthers’ quarterback and for him to vastly outperform his pricepoint as the 19th most expensive quarterback.
Running Backs
Rico Dowdle ($6,100)
While it has been a season to forget for the Dallas Cowboys, Rico Dowdle has shown some positive flashes in recent weeks. Across the 12 games he has played, Dowdle has recorded 152 carries which he has taken for 731 yards and a touchdown. He also has added 33 receptions for 205 receiving yards and three touchdowns through the air. He has fully emerged as the featured running back and is coming off back-to-back games with 113 or more rushing yards.
As the Cowboys prepare to face off with the Panthers, look for this stretch of success to continue. Carolina ranks dead last in rushing yards allowed, 31st in rushing touchdowns conceded, and 31st in net yards per rush attempt. The Panthers have not held an opponent to under 102 rushing yards since Week 3 and are coming off back-to-back weeks with over 200 rushing yards allowed.
Dowdle is averaging 15.4 touches per game across the season and has had 19 or more touches across each of the past three weeks. He is capable of catching the ball out of the backfield and has had success on the ground. It may not be the cleanest pathway to production, but Dowdle will see plenty of action and should be in store for a solid fantasy football output.
Tank Bigsby ($5,100)
While you should not be in a rush to put anyone in a Jaguars uniform into your lineups, Tank Bigsby is an intriguing value play at the price point of $5,100. Bigsby logged 53% of the offensive snaps last week and finished with 19 touches for 62 total yards. He finished as the 20th-ranked running back based on DraftKings scoring.
The biggest surprise was Bigsby receiving 18 rushing attempts compared to Travis Etienne logging just four carries. The second-year back handled 83% of the rushing play snaps and 40% of the red zone opportunities. Jacksonville will prepare to face off with the New York Jets this week who have also seen their season hopes evaporate. While New York was expected to have a fearful defense, this has not proven to be the case. On the season overall they rank 20th in points allowed and have given up the third-most rushing touchdowns.
While Etienne is fully off the injury report, Jacksonville has not been eager to re-incorporate him into the offense. Bigsby has made the most of his opportunities this season and is being rewarded. It may not be as drastic as the 18-4 split last week but expect the former third-round pick to continue to see plenty of opportunity with the ball in his hands. Look for him to produce a solid performance again this week and outperform the $5,100 cost.
Wide Receivers
Jameson Williams ($5,600)
The Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills are set to face off in the most highly anticipated matchup of the week. These are the two highest-scoring offenses in the league and there are plenty of offensive fireworks expected for both sides.
Jameson Williams will be a significant part of Detroit’s offensive attack as he is the primary big-play threat on the roster. So far this season Williams has tallied 39 receptions for 710 yards and four touchdowns. He also has added eight carries for 56 yards and ranks as the 34th wide receiver based on fantasy scoring.
Detroit has shown some of the most creative play call across the entire NFL and Williams will be a significant chess piece they will look to utilize. He holds a 17.9% target share and has seen 11 deep targets across his 11 games played. Buffalo has a solid defense, but it takes just one play for Williams to change the entire outlook of a week. Expect him to have a few opportunities in this matchup and for Williams to finish as a top-24 wide receiver on the week which he has done four times already this season.
Quentin Johnston ($5,000)
The Los Angeles Chargers have emerged as a darkhorse threat in the AFC with their offense looking much more dangerous than it did at the start of the season. While Justin Herbert is banged up and battling injury, he is expected to suit up this week and for the offense to function as normal. Ladd McConkey is listed as questionable for the matchup and was a limited participant at practice after missing last week’s game.
With or without McConkey, look for Quentin Johnston to make an impact. Without McConkey last week, Johnston tallied five catches on seven targets for 48 yards and a touchdown. He has proven to be especially valuable around the red zone and has a team-high seven receiving touchdowns this season. Overall he has recorded 29 receptions for 414 yards along with the seven scores. Johnston has tallied a catch in all but one game this season and recorded as many as 118 receiving yards in a game.
The Chargers will face off with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week and both sides are still fighting to secure their playoff futures. Tampa Bay currently ranks 30th in passing yards allowed and 22nd in passing touchdowns conceded. While the drop issues have still popped up in stretches, Johnston has been dangerous with the ball in his hands. Don’t be shocked if Los Angeles attempts to attack through the screen and quick pass game to limit the chances of Herbert getting hit. Johnston is more than capable of making a big play happen with the ball in his hands and will have enough volume to produce a strong performance this week.
Tight End
Sam LaPorta ($4,400)
While this falls on the higher end of the value list, expect big things from Sam LaPorta this week. He enters the week eighth in cost but has a great opportunity to finish as the top-performing tight end. LaPorta has slightly underwhelmed relative to expectations this season and this expected high-scoring matchup with the Bills could be the breakout performance he is due for.
Overall this season, LaPorta has recorded 36 receptions for 445 yards and five touchdowns. He ranks 13th among tight ends based on DraftKings scoring. LaPorta has tallied at least one catch in every game and ranks third in Detroit in both receptions and receiving yards as well as third in touchdowns.
Buffalo and Detroit enter as the two top-scoring teams in the NFL and this matchup is set for plenty of offensive opportunities. Buffalo has allowed an average of 39.2 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season while LaPorta has eclipsed this number in six games. How active he is around the red zone will decide the ceiling of his production, but this high-powered offensive matchup may pave the way for the level of offensive explosion that LaPorta has not quite reached yet this year.
Noah Gray ($3,200)
Travis Kelce steals the spotlight when it comes to tight end production on the Kansas City Chiefs, but Noah Gray has taken a significant step forward this season. Through the opening 13 games, Gray has recorded 35 receptions for 399 yards and four touchdowns. Each of these numbers is a career-high for the fourth-year tight end and he ranks 17th in fantasy production based on DraftKings scoring across the entire season.
Gray has tallied at least one catch in 11 of the 13 games this season including four catches in six matchups. He is averaging 7.6 fantasy points per game and had fantasy outputs of 18.3 points and 22.6 points in Weeks 11 and 12. Gray has logged at least 50% of offensive snaps in every game this season and has taken a notable stride forward in his role in the Chiefs offense.
Kansas City will face off with the Cleveland Browns this week. Cleveland ranks 26th in points allowed, 21st in yards given up, and 29th in net yards per pass attempts. Tight ends are averaging 49.3 receiving yards per game against the Browns this season. Getting Noah Gray as the 24th most expensive tight end is great value this week.
Defense & Special Teams
Carolina Panthers Defense & Special Teams ($2,600)
The Carolina Panthers are tied for the worst record in the NFL and enter this week set to face off with the Dallas Cowboys. While their 3-10 record is far from inspiring, Carolina has played better football of late and Dallas has been trending in the opposite direction. Across the past three weeks, the Panthers lost 22-16 to the Philadelphia Eagles, 26-23 in overtime against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and 30-27 to the Kansas City Chiefs. While none of these are victories, all of these are respectable results against high-caliber playoff teams.
Overall this year, Carolina ranks dead last in points allowed and 31st in yards given up. They will now face the 5-8 Cowboys who ranks 21st in points scored and 20th in yards gained on offense. Cooper Rush continues to lead the offense but is averaging just 132.3 passing yards per game across the nine games he has played with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Bryce Young has been playing much better football of late. Expect him to put the Panthers in a position to win and Carolina to have enough production defensively to match this. It is a recipe for disaster if the Cowboys need Rush to make plays and lead the team from behind, and Carolina will greatly benefit if this is how the game plays out.
Don’t expect the Panthers’ defense to win you a week, but have higher expectations than the 32nd-ranked defensive production they have shown thus far. Tied for the seventh least expensive option on the week, you can survive with the Panthers in your lineup and use your allocated funds for other positions.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
