Bills WR Amari Cooper wasn’t just a fixture in one of the major trade-deadline deals for meaningful offensive skill players headed to contending teams. He was, also, a fixture in many a fantasy trade this year. His air yardage on the Browns suggested a player who was still creating separation and running clean routes despite fielding passes from an eroding Deshaun Watson. Once word got out that Josh Allen would be his new quarterback, Amari Cooper was immediately a fantasy marketplace asset.
For example: According to NFL Next Gen Stats, headed into Week 4, Amari Cooper led the NFL in air yards on incomplete passes (272 at that time).
And yet, his tenure on the Bills has looked like:
- Keon Coleman reminding him of a route for Cooper’s first Bills TD;
- a lingering wrist injury that forced him to miss plenty of practice, and had him in a cast for a few games;
- a lateral touchdown pass(?)/toss(?) to Josh Allen in this season’s second Snow Bowl;
- a heavy emphasis on the Bills run game, between Josh Allen and James Cook, versus any sort of vertical aspect through the air.
He had a fine game against the Rams on Sunday in a climate-controlled scorefest: six receptions on 14(!) targets for 95 receiving yards. Clearly, still some polishing to do
And still, let’s be clear: if you traded for Amari Cooper, you’ve yet to get the explosive game you might have paid for when you traded for him midseason. Where are the forty-point explosions from his Cowboys days with Dak Prescott, and his time in Oakland with Derek Carr?
Amari Cooper Week 15 Projections
Fresh off a devastating inter-conference loss to the Los Angeles Rams, the Bills head into Detroit to face the 11-1 Lions—the firm favorites, currently, to win the NFC.
Some notes about this week: Dalton Kincaid (knee) is questionable, and Keon Coleman will play for the Bills. Amari Cooper isn’t on the injury report. All to say: Josh Allen should have his full complement of pass-catchers against a Detroit defense that gives up the fourth-most points to opposing fantasy wide receivers.
So—right. We just saw the Rams fail to score a touchdown on Thursday night as part of the hangover from the shootout. There’s reason to be skeptical that Josh Allen and the Bills could hang a number on this gritty Detroit defense at home. Important to keep in mind here, though, that this could be the first of two time these two teams meet, should current odds favorites hold to make it to the Super Bowl.
One of the reasons we’ve yet to see a big game from Cooper that might resemble the nuclear performances from his Browns days: decrease in offensive snap count. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he’s averaging around 30 offensive snaps in Buffalo, whereas he averaged around 50 in Cleveland. A 40% drop-off is enough to do that.
Bottom Line
Having said that, Cooper saw 14 targets on 29 offensive plays against the Rams. He logged 35 in the games against the Chiefs and the Seahawks. This means two things: Josh Allen is making a concerted effort to get him the ball when scoring is necessary, and the Bills line up in 11-personnel in those instances, too. Hence Cooper’s snap count increasing games against teams who can score (or, alternatively, punt) quickly.
Given that this game has, far and away, the highest projected total on DraftKings Sportsbook of any game in NFL Week 15 by a longshot (54.5), I would expect Cooper’s offensive snap count to creep into the forties this week. I think Cooper will see double-digit targets, provided he’s healthy for the full game.
And, yes—I want so bad for this to be the game when Amari Cooper hard-launches his Bills career, the one that will set a fire under extension talks this offseason. Start him with confidence, even though some platforms project him for under ten PPR fantasy points.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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