Who had the AFC West appearing to be the strongest division in football? Three teams from the West are sitting in playoff position entering Week 15, including the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos, two of the biggest positive surprises of the 2024 season.
The Chargers made a huge change over the offseason, bringing former San Francisco 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh back to the NFL to man the sidelines at SoFi stadium. Harbaugh has coaxed a strong season out of quarterback Justin Herbert, who, after struggling with turnover issues in the first few years of his career, has tossed just one interception in his first 13 games. So far this season, Herbert has completed 63.4% of his passes for 2,764 yards, 14 touchdowns, and just the one pick, ranking as the third-best quarterback in the league by Pro Football Focus’ metric.
Los Angeles fans got a scare this week as Herbert, who has been dealing with thigh and ankle injuries, missed Wednesday’s practice and was only a limited participant on Thursday. However, he participated fully on Friday and was removed from the team’s injury report ahead of its matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. The Chargers opened as 2.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set at 45.5.
Herbert is one of the toughest players in the league, so even if he’s a little banged up against the Buccaneers, it’ll be far from the first time he’s played at less than 100%. He still presents an extremely strong play against a defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on DraftKings.
Tampa Bay gets challenged frequently by opposing quarterbacks, as teams have taken to the air 491 times, the second-most in the NFL. Furthermore, the Bucs combine high volume with mediocre efficiency, allowing 7.2 yards per attempt — the 16th-highest rate in football — and a 97.0 quarterback rating, the 12th-best. Tampa Bay has also given up 21 passing touchdowns this year, the 10th-most. Herbert isn’t a particularly high-volume passer — the Chargers have him drop back on just 53.6% of snaps, the ninth-lowest rate in the league — but he is effective when he does.
With Los Angeles fighting to solidify its playoff position, it has been throwing the ball more in recent weeks, dropping back on 62.6% of its snaps in the last three weeks. With a huge road game against Denver on the horizon in Week 16 and the 6-7 Indianapolis Colts having three easily-winnable games on their schedule over the final three weeks of the season, a win on Sunday would be go a long way towards helping the Chargers secure their second playoff berth in the last three years. Expect Herbert to live up to the moment.
Start or Sit: Start Justin Herbert.
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