Before his injury in the Colts’ Week 12 matchup with Detroit, wide receiver Josh Downs was emerging as one of the NFL’s top slot options.
He’s questionable for Week 15 due to his shoulder injury, but Downs practiced in full on Thursday and Friday, so he is likely in position to make his return vs. the Broncos.
If he does play, can fantasy managers trust him in the first round of most leagues’ playoffs?
A rising star
The young wideout was in the midst of a breakout campaign prior to his injury. Despite a questionable quarterback situation between Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco, Downs has caught 53 passes for 594 yards and four touchdowns. He’s already surpassed his rookie season’s touchdown production, and he needs just 16 catches to set a new career-high in receptions. Had he not missed three games this season, the 5-foot-9 receiver would have been on pace to break the 1,000-yard receiving mark, too.
As for his fantasy production, Downs averages 13.6 points per game, good for WR26 on a PPG basis. He ranks just ahead of big names such as DK Metcalf, Tyreek Hill, Zay Flowers, and DJ Moore… you probably get the idea. Downs is a great player both in real life and fantasy football, and with an average of 7.8 targets per game, he receives a steady chunk of the volume in the Colts’ passing game.
Should he be in lineups this week?
If Downs takes the field on Sunday, should he also have a role on the virtual gridiron? The answer is almost certainly yes.
For an every-down WR, the threat of reduced snaps in a return from injury would usually be a concern for a slight downtick in production. However, Downs primarily operates out of the slot and has only played greater than 70% of snaps once this season (Week 6). The threat of a limited workload isn’t high enough for major concern.
The Colts will also need every bit of offensive firepower they can muster in a matchup against a playoff-hopeful Denver Broncos squad. Denver’s defense ranks top-10 in points per game, total yardage, and rushing yards. However, they’re 20th in passing yards allowed per game. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor is talented, but it’s likely the team relies more on their passing attack than usual against a strong Broncos defense.
The Colts are 6-5 and on the playoff bubble. According to NFL Next Gen Stats’ playoff projections, they’ll have a 54% chance to make the postseason if they win this week. If they lose, their playoff hopes fall to just 7%. Make no mistake, they’re playing for their season. Expect some extra motivation in this one.
What to expect from Downs?
Even though it’s his first game back after a couple weeks off, Downs should come in and make an impact in this one. Superstar cornerback Patrick Surtain II will likely draw the matchup with Michael Pittman Jr., so Downs could eat as a primary target in this one if his teammate is limited.
Expect a solid floor of 10 fantasy points, with upside for the 16-plus point performances the 23-year-old was putting up prior to injury.
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