Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Nuggets’ wayward star Jamal Murray to have a 45% chance to play today. Murray is questionable on the official NBA Injury Report with right hamstring inflammation, but was declared out in preview write-ups from the team. As a result, his status is even more up in the air than the usual Q-tag players.
Murray has been an albatross of a player on the year compared to his previous self. Murray is down to 0.96 DraftKings Points Per Minute in 2024 with a 21.8% usage rate and 23.6% assist rate. For a player who’s been well above 1.00 DraftKings Point Per Minute and well over 30% usage and assist rates in the past, he’s been substantially worse in his play in every facet so far this season.
Even with his lowered standard of play, Jamal Murray would take a good amount of possessions away in tonight’s matchup at home versus the Clippers. Unabated’s NBA projection team projects Murray for 16.8 points, 3.5 rebounds and 5.6 assists if he were to play tonight.
If Murray sits, his Nuggets teammates would see the following changes to their expected production:
- Nikola Jokic projects for 31.9 points, 11.9 rebounds and 10.5 assists (30.4 points, 12.6 rebounds and 9.5 assists if Murray plays)
- Christian Braun projects for 12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.8 assists (12.3 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.8 assists if Murray plays)
- Michael Porter projects for 18.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 2.2 assists (17.9 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.2 assists if Murray plays)
- Russell Westbrook projects for 14.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and 7.1 assists (9.8 points, 3.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists if Murray plays)
- Aaron Gordon projects for 13.9 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists (13.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.4 assists if Murray plays)
With the minutes and production increase, Nikola Jokic looks like an even more appealing pay-up option on tonight’s DraftKings slate. Russell Westbrook will also go from borderline unplayable at his $6,300 salary to an interesting tournament option.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
