First touchdown scorer prop bets have quickly become a fan-favorite for most NFL bettors. The odds are usually juicy and there is minimal sweat involved unless the game features elite defenses and/or underwhelming offenses. I don’t know about you but I like to determine the outcome of my bets as quickly as possible––betting on first touchdown scorer props does just that.
Below, I’ll run through the entire NFL Week 15 Sunday slate and provide my top choice on DraftKings Sportsbook for the first touchdown scorer in each game.
Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints
Brian Robinson Jr. First TD Scorer (+400)
This feels like a no-brainer. The Commanders rushing attack ranks second in rushing EPA while the Saints rushing defense ranks 29th. Robinson Jr. has logged at least 16 carries in six of 10 games this season and leads the team in red zone touches with 32. New Orleans is also more susceptible on the ground when playing at home, allowing a whopping 5.8 yards per carry. This feels like a rather huge game for the Commanders’ rushing attack, led by Robinson Jr.––he has scored the first touchdown in four games and the Saints have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs this season.
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants
Derrick Henry First TD Scorer (+245)
Henry has scored Baltimore’s first touchdown six times already this season and draws a favorable matchup against New York, who has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing running backs. The Ravens’ red zone offense when playing on the road is the best and the Giants’ red zone defense when playing at home is the second worst. Henry leads the Ravens with 45 red zone touches and will be hungry to get into the end zone against a weak opponent after failing to do so in the past two games.
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns
DeAndre Hopkins First TD Scorer (+1100)
Hopkins scored Kansas City’s first touchdown last week and should be able to carry the momentum into Week 15 against a weak Cleveland secondary. The Browns have allowed the fifth-most touchdowns and eighth-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers this season, and Hopkins has garnered nine targets in back-to-back games. The Chiefs have struggled in the red zone but luckily, the Browns defense ranks dead last in red zone percentage at home. Cleveland also fares well against tight ends this season, so Patrick Mahomes could lean on Hopkins.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
Chase Brown First TD Scorer (+425)
Cincinnati’s defense worries me but the Bengals should have minimal problems moving the ball on offense. Brown has scored a touchdown in seven games this season and has logged at least 80 percent of the snaps in four straight games. He’s going to get the ball often and Tennessee has allowed four rushing touchdowns in just the last two games. Brown has totaled 33 red zone touches and will see plenty of chances against the Titans’ poor red zone defense, which ranks 27th in the NFL.
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans
Joe Mixon First TD Scorer (+390)
Miami’s offense is deadly but its home versus road splits are real and I’d rather trust Mixon at home to get in the end zone first. Mixon has scored at least one touchdown in eight of 10 games this season with three of those being the first touchdown of the game. The Dolphins defense has been sound this season but they’ve allowed a rushing touchdown in back-to-back games and the ninth-most to opposing running backs on the season. Mixon also dominates the snap share and has logged 51 red zone touches this season.
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
Rico Dowdle First TD Scorer (+475)
The Panthers defense ranks 31st in rushing EPA and has allowed the most rushing yards and touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. Dowdle failed to find the end zone last week but has still totaled 18+ carries and 80+ yards in three straight games. He has also logged at least 60% of the snaps and eight red zone touches in that span. Both offenses are boring but both defenses are also awful––there could be a ton of touchdowns or two total. I’m trusting Dallas’ offense, which averages a whole nine more points per game when playing on the road, to score first.
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
Davante Adams First TD Scorer (+750)
New York’s running back situation is too hard to gauge so we’ll pivot to Aaron Rodgers’ best friend, who has garnered at least 11 targets in four of the last five games. Adams has also received eight red zone targets and five end zone targets in that span. The Jaguars’ secondary is flat-out bad. They’ve allowed the fourth-most receiving yards and 10th-most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. Their defense ranks dead last in dropback EPA and Ronald Darby sports a 0.47 EPA/target rating, which is tied for the sixth-worst among cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps, per Next Gen Stats.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley First TD Scorer (+255)
This should be an easy no-brainer but Jalen Hurts tends to ruin it. This game should be a dogfight featuring tough defenses that lock down the running game. Philadelphia is still going to feed Barkley, though, as he has totaled at least 20 carries and 100 rushing yards in seven of the past eight games. Pittsburgh is a stingy defense but it has still allowed four rushing touchdowns from running backs in four of the past five games. Barkley barely leaves the field, has scored the first touchdown in four games and has totaled 56 red zone touches this season.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
Bo Nix First TD Scorer (+1200)
This is slightly worrisome because Nix has been running less, totaling 10 combined carries across the last four weeks after averaging over six per game from Week 1 to Week 9. But, it’s a sneaky good matchup. Indianapolis hasn’t faced many dual-threat quarterbacks this season but in the three games it did––Justin Fields in Week 4, Josh Allen in Week 10 and Drake Maye in Week 13––those quarterbacks combined for 143 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. The Colts’ pass rush has also been top five in both quarterback pressure rate and sack rate across the last five weeks, per Next Gen Stats, which should force Nix to run often. He has totaled five touchdowns on the ground this season and has logged the second-most red zone touches on the team.
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown First TD Scorer (+750)
St. Brown hasn’t found the end zone in three straight weeks but this feels like a perfect get-right spot. I had to watch the Puka Nacua show last week as a Bills fan and will have to watch the Amon-Ra St. Brown show this week. Buffalo will also be down its CB2, Rasul Douglas, this week and backup defensive backs guarding St. Brown sounds like a recipe for disaster. Detroit will be able to run the ball quite easily and is very good in the red zone, and St. Brown leads all pass-catchers in red zone touches. If he scores on a jet sweep inside the five-yard line like Nacua did last week, then I can predict the future.
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals
James Conner First TD Scorer (+360)
Arizona plays well at home and New England plays poorly on the road. When playing at home this season, the Cardinals have scored a touchdown on 38% of their first drives and rank fourth in rushing yards per game. Conner remains their workhorse and averages 15.5 carries per game this season and should be able to get going early against a Patriots defense that has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. It’s hard to predict which version of Arizona we get each week but Conner is by far its go-to red zone threat and should see plenty of chances.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers
Rachaad White First TD Scorer (+650)
Bucky Irving is questionable with multiple injuries and the Chargers have their fair share of key injuries, too. White has totaled at least 75 rushing yards in back-to-back games and found the end zone twice last week. Although he hasn’t been used in the passing game as much in the past few weeks, this may be the week to get back on track. Tampa Bay’s offensive line is banged up and Los Angeles’ pass rush ranks fifth in sacks, so I’d expect Baker Mayfield to check it down quite a bit. White logged 76% of the snaps last week and even if Irving plays, he will likely be limited.
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