Welcome to this edition of the DraftKings NFL DFS Edge Check! This week we are going to be using the Contest Simulations over at Paydirtdfs.com to take a look at each position and highlight some of the most undervalued options based on the sim results. This process involves utilizing ownership projections and projection distributions, and simulating contest outcomes to better understand how valuable a player really is in different field sizes.
We are going to break down the top overall edges, which gives us plays to focus on. If you want to see the players that appear to be overvalued that will hurt you in GPPs, check out the full contest sims on the site. If you use the code DKNATION at checkout on a monthly subscription, you’ll get 25% off your first month!
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QB Edge Distributions
I once again decided to sort the QB results by exposure today so we can get some context around who is found in the winning lineups:
- The contest sims love Jared Goff ($6,500) in an up pace matchup with the Bills as evidenced by the highest exposure rate in winning lineups (16%) which is more than double his projected ownership (7.18%)
- Kyler Murray ($6,000) and Justin Herbert ($5,900) both show up as valuable options even relative to their higher projected ownerships of 13.97% and 11.33%
- Lamar Jackson ($8,300) is the pricey option the sims like this week with a 14.20% exposure rate and +7.93% edge offered as huge favorites over the Giants
It makes sense to put a focus on that DET/BUF game environment, so I have no issue blindly following the contest sims down that path. If you don’t, the LAC and HOU game environments are both strong as well with good totals and up-tempo teams.
RB Edge Distributions
Above are the top-five options are RB in terms of edge offered on the slate.
We have Brian Robinson Jr. ($6,200) as the highest edge offered at RB this week. His +11.79% edge is thanks to a 21% exposure rate and a 9.51% projected ownership. With no Austin Ekeler his role is secure and WAS should be able to control the ball and tempo against a drowning Saints squad.
Rico Dowdle ($6,100) is probably my other favorite option that the sims are picking up on. At a low price he holds a strong marketshare of the rushing attempts and good route participation even if the Cowboys are bad. He also has the best possible matchup for RBs against Carolina, who is allowing 100+yard rushers like it is a contract incentive in week 18. His edge offered is +6.05% with an exposure rate of 17.90%.
Similarly to last week, the highest owned RB on the slate is not in the above image, you’ll want to check out the full Contest Sims on the site to see see where he ranks.
WR Edge Distributions
For WRs we went ahead and sorted the Paydirt contest sims by projected ownership for some surprising results.
It’s really interesting that three of the WRs with the highest projected ownership are looking like they are pretty heavily overvalued! Both Tee Higgins ($6,800) and Ja’Marr Chase ($8,400) appear to be way overvalued for this slate, with edges of -10.91% and -9.15% respectively. They are joined by Amon-Ra St.Brown ($7,600) with an edge of -7.97% due to a projected ownership of around 15% and an exposure rate of 6.70%. All three of these WRs are expensive and part of gamestacks that people are trying to jam in. the issue is there aren’t many value plays at RB to make them available.
The other two WRs that have high projected ownership (as of now) are Calvin Ridley ($5,900) and Marvin Harrison Jr. ($5,500). You can see that these guys are slightly positive edge plays at +1.62% and +1.70% even with high ownership. This is because their price allows you to fit the expensive RBs and TEs that we want access to.
There are five WRs with edges of 6%+ this week in the contest sims. You’ll want to check out the full Contest Sims on the site to see who you should should focus on while you go under the field on Bengals stacks!
TE Edge Distributions
Above you will find the five TEs with the highest edge from the contest sims.
We do have a couple interesting names here that we should focus on even if the edges offered are relatively small. Dalton Schultz ($3,300) is the top edge with an exposure rate of +12.30% giving him an edge of +4.92%. He pairs well with C.J. Stroud (one of the five highest exposure rate QBs in the sims) and is cheap enough to give you flexibility where needed.
The other most interesting name here is Pat Freiermuth. His exposure rate is relatively low at 1.70%, but he is projected for basically no ownership so he comes out as just about neutral. With no George Pickens we saw the Muth get some extra attention and most important we know that his catchable target rate is very high. This combo should lead to a strong floor and good touchdown equity if the Steelers are competitive against a strong Eagles group.
The only other TE that I will mention that I think is really interesting is Stone Smartt ($2,600) who is a pure punt option with upside. He has shown some upside as a TE2 when called upon for the Chargers and makes for a great play in a QB+2 with Herbert.
Overall Thoughts on the Sims
Super interesting week with no true value opening up at RB so far.
We do have a lot of value that has opened at WR and TE, which should in theory make the expensive RBs more accessible and higher owned. I think the contest sims were picking up on this when deciding that the Bengals WRs were just not necessary and therefore overowned. If you follow their logic, it makes sense that you would be looking more towards Chase Brown, Tony Pollard, and Lamar Jackson as places to spend your salary.
Another point I think is worth bringing up is that the QBs are heavily paired with their cheap TEs, which is another thing allowing for spending at RB/WR. We see Schultz, Andrews, and Likely all paired with QBs with the high exposure rates in the sims because the correlation is worth more than the punts at other positions.
Based on the sims I think the formula (as of now) is relatively simple. Use the WR/TE value and correlate it with your QB while you spend up at RB.
Good luck and go grab some trophies. And remember, If you use the code DKNATION at checkout on a monthly subscription you’ll get 25% off your first month!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Multichem) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.