GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” NFL names your dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough. Guys that no one talks about—not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea—lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about, but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 15.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
Top DFS Stack
Game Stack: Dolphins at Texans
C.J. Stroud ($6,200) – Tyreek Hill ($7,400) – Nico Collins ($8,100) – Tank Dell ($5,400)
The Texans – Dolphins game will played in a dome and carries a point total of 46.5 which is tied for the second biggest on the slate, making this a sneaky good game to target.
It’s been a down year for C.J. Stroud but the opponent, and the fact he’s coming in off a bye, make this a good week to consider him as a low-owned option for DFS. Opponents facing the Dolphins are averaging 35.5 pass attempts over their last three games and Stroud is averaging over 35 attempts per game when at home this season. He’ll also be up against a clear-pass funnel defense in Miami.
The Dolphins allowed 339 yards to the Jets last week with both their WRs going for over 100 yards. Over their last four games, opposing QBs have averaged 279 passing yards and 1.5 passing TDs vs the Dolphins, and that includes games against Aaron Rodgers, Drake Maye, and Gardner Minshew.
If we’re using Stroud against Miami, then Nico Collins is a must. A true WR1 in every sense of the word he’s posted target shares of 30% and 34% in his last two games and, as mentioned, will face a secondary that regressed badly last week. If we’re going big in the contrarian route with a Houston pass stack, then double-stacking Stroud is also an option. Tank Dell may be in the midst of a sophomore slump but he’s still got great big play ability and took 33% of the team’s air yards last game.
Two games ago against the Titans Dell came down with 72 yards on just three catches and if he can find the end zone against Miami, he’ll have a shot at both boosting Stroud’s totals and being one of the best overall values at WRs this week.
While we have lots of options as comeback plays on the Dolphins, I have no issue in going back to “ole reliable,” Tyreek Hill, in this spot. Hill has now scored TDs in five of his last six games and his 31% target share from last week was his highest since Week 5. Considering that the Texans have allowed the second-most TDs to opposing WRs this season, Hill looks like he’ll have a great shot at returning value again on his still affordable $7,400 salary.
This is an expensive stack, but with some good value options available at other positions, it can work this week in GPPs.
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels ($7,500)
Daniels is coming off a bye and will be playing a Saints defense that is 29th in EPA against the rush this week. That alone should have us perked up for a potential monster game on the horizon, and the fact the Saints have given up some monster games to opposing QBs on the ground of late makes this spot all the more intriguing.
Drew Lock didn’t have the greatest passing day in Week 14, but he busted free for a few long runs and totaled 57 rush yards on just five carries. Additionally, both Bo Nix (10 carries for 75 yards) and Justin Herbert (4 carries for 49 yards) went for big weeks on the ground against the Saints earlier in the season.
Being in a dome this week, it wouldn’t be shocking to see New Orleans dial up a few more designed rushes for Daniels whose explosiveness in the open field may even turn one of those big gains (or two) into a TD. As a pay-up option, Daniels would be at the top of my list in terms of QBs to pivot towards for Week 15.
Running Back
Higher End: Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500)
The Bills and Lions game is one you need to get exposure to for DFS. It has a 54.5-point game total and features two of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.
For the Lions, I think this is a time for them to rely heavily on Jahmyr Gibbs. The Bills have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season and they’ve been particularly poor against RBs acting as receivers out of the backfield. Gibbs’ usage as a receiver has also taken a step up over his last couple of games. He posted a 51% route rate and 15% target share vs the Packers which was his highest since Week 7.
The Bills have allowed the second-most receptions and third-most receiving yards to opposing RBs so Gibbs could potentially be in for a big workload if this game stays close. I see this as more of a Gibbs week than Montgomery, so would lean towards paying up for the second year back to get my Lions exposure if possible.
Lower End: Sean Tucker ($4,300)
Tucker could be in line to be the value play of the week at RB. Bucky Irving has been held out of practice the first two days of the week and reportedly is nursing multiple injuries. Last week, Tucker came in for a few relief carries after he left mid-game and promptly reeled off a couple of big runs, totaling 47 yards on just three carries. The second-year back has talent and in his only other start of the season posted 136 rush yards on 14 carries and added 36 receiving yards and two TDs.
Tucker may even be the Buccaneers’ best back when it’s all said and done and we’ve seen that they aren’t afraid to give him work when one of their other top two backs is out. IF Irving misses this week (we should know by the end of Friday) then it would be wheels up for Tucker. The matchup isn’t the greatest but with his price below normal backup levels, he’d be in a great spot to at least return 3-4x value. Should he duplicate his previous workload from his Week 6 breakout game, he’d be in line to be the fantasy play of the week at RB.
Wide Receiver
Higher End: Khalil Shakir ($6,100)
We all saw Shakir breakout last week against the Rams, taking a short crosser over the middle for a long score. He ended that game with eight targets and 106 yards (and a score) and should be in a spot to see similar if not better usage against Detroit.
Teams are averaging 35.0 pass attempts per game vs the Lions and much like the Rams, the Lions’ corners are vulnerable to getting beat after the catch––making this a nice spot for Shakir to display his elite open-field running ability, which has him second in total yards after the catch this year, despite having caught just 65 receptions this season.
At just 6.1k, it’s hard not to like him in this matchup. Even if rookie Keon Coleman returns this week, he’s more likely to affect Amari Cooper’s usage so don’t be afraid to fire up Shakir as a stacking option or lone value play this week.
Lower End: Mike Williams ($3,800)
Williams looks set to play a meaningful role for the Steelers in their game vs the Eagles. Last week, with George Pickens out he ended up playing on just 19 snaps, but still posted a 20% target share and made some big plays for the Steelers, which saw him end the game with 3 receptions and 36 yards.
Williams is priced like he’ll again have a small role, but after a full week of practice to integrate better there is a great chance he’ll play far more snaps in Week 15. The matchup with the Eagles is tough but at 6’4, Williams will also have a 4-inch height advantage against both of the Eagles starting corners.
At under $4,000, he’s an extreme value option that has the upside to potentially return 4-5x this week given the primary targets that will be up for grabs with Pickens out.
Tight End
Juwan Johnson ($3,400)
Johnson came through last week with a big game, posting 50 yards, 4 receptions, and a TD on five targets. The TE outproduced the Saints WR1 Marquez Valdes-Scantling last week and with the Commanders on tap, we may see a repeat performance from him in Week 15.
Washington is traditionally soft in the middle of the field and has allowed 6 receiving TDs to opposing TEs this season already, the fourth-most in the league. They’ve also allowed five different TEs to go for 50+ yards against them and Johnson, who has posted target shares of 17% and 19% over his last two starts, feels like a good candidate to see 6+ targets given the spread in this game has moved to Commanders -7.5.
There is some risk that the QB play is so poor for New Orleans, who will be starting Jake Haener, that Johnson doesn’t do much, but typically the downgrade to a backup is overhyped in these spots. The fact is, Johnson remains cheap for DFS purposes and should see plenty of primary targets once again, making him a nice low-priced value to consider for those in need of a cheap TE play for Week 15.
Defense/Special Teams
Cowboys D/ST ($2,800)
The Cowboys are slight underdogs this week vs the Panthers but that line may be an overreaction to the fact the Cowboys lost in primetime to the Bengals and the fact that the Panthers played a close game vs the Eagles. The truth is, the Cowboys have a big talent edge in this game, especially on defense where the likes of Micah Parsons, Eric Kendricks, and Trevon Digg could give Bryce Young fits in this spot.
Dallas does give up lots of yards but they’ve been a better DST for fantasy lately since getting healthy. They’ve averaged 14.3 points per game over their last three starts and have averaged two turnovers and 4 sacks over that span. With a weaker QB on the other side this week and a team potentially ripe for a letdown after a big game vs the Eagles, I don’t see any reason not to roll with Dallas this week, who remain extremely affordable at under 3k, despite their hot run of late in the fantasy streets.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
