The Week 15 edition of Thursday Night Football sees the 6-7 San Francisco 49ers host the 7-6 Los Angeles Rams in a great NFC West battle. The 49ers are 3-point favorites with an over/under of 49.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
There are far more ways to get involved in the action than just via traditional betting. One of the more unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Football!
Rams at 49ers Pick6 Plays
The NFC West is a loaded division with all four teams still in the mix. The Rams are one game back of the division-leading Seahawks, while the 49ers are one game back of the Rams. Both teams are desperate for a win in this spot to bolster their position in the division and NFC Wildcard races. These two teams already faced off once this season in a game that the Rams won 27-24 in Los Angeles.
Here are my top Pick6 plays for the Thursday night NFC West matchup.
Matthew Stafford More Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Matthew Stafford is having another solid season for the Rams. Despite missing his top two weapons for a big chunk of the season, Stafford ranks in the top ten of the NFL in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and success rate. Stafford and the Rams’ passing attack has really rounded into form the past few weeks since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both got healthy. Since Week 9, the Rams’ offense is 6th in the league in EPA/dropback and 5th in dropback success rate.
Over that same stretch, the 49ers’ defense is 19th in defensive EPA dropback and 20th in defensive dropback success rate. The 49ers’ defense is struggling to get stops and limit explosive plays through the air, which sets up perfectly for Stafford to attack them. Stafford has two or more passing touchdowns in four straight games and in six of his past seven games. This should be a high-scoring game and Stafford will need to make the plays to get his team into the end zone.
George Kittle More Than 4.5 Receptions
George Kittle is the leader in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns for the 49ers this season. He is having another big year for the 49ers. Having only missed one game this season, he has been one of the healthiest players on the team. Kittle has cleared 4.5 receptions in six of his past eight games, and he should have a big workload against the Rams. The Los Angeles defense ranks 29th in EPA/dropback and 27th in dropback success rate.
With a banged-up running back room, the 49ers are going to need to take advantage of the Rams’ weak secondary and attack them through the air. Just like he has been all season, Kittle will be Brock Purdy’s go-to guy. Purdy trusts Kittle above all of his other pass-catchers, so in key third downs or in the red zone, he wants to target Kittle. The 49ers’ offense found a real burst of life last week against the Bears, and they should carry that momentum into this important divisional matchup.
Kyren Williams More Than 73.5 Rushing Yards
Kyren Williams is one of the most underrated running backs in the NFL. The Rams’ passing attack gets a lot of publicity with two superstar wide receivers and a Super Bowl-winning quarterback. However, Williams’ effectiveness on the ground is essential to making this offense click. Williams ranks in the top five in the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns this season. He should have another effective game against the 49ers on Thursday night.
When these two teams faced off earlier this season, Williams had 89 rushing yards and two touchdowns. The 49ers’ defense is a good matchup for Williams as they rank 28th in defensive EPA/rush and 29th in defensive rushing success rate this season. Williams will get a healthy share of carries to keep the San Francisco defense honest, and he should be able to pick up solid chunks on the ground throughout this game. Williams has comfortably cleared this number in three of his past four games and should do so again in this rivalry matchup.
Jauan Jennings More Than 69.5 Receiving Yards
Jauan Jennings has been the 49ers’ best receiver this season. He leads the team in receptions and closely trails only George Kittle in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Jennings had a career game when these two teams faced off earlier this season. Jennings went for 11 catches, 175 yards and three touchdowns in the first matchup. The Rams’ secondary is vulnerable. Jennings proved that he can exploit their weaknesses earlier this season.
Even though Deebo Samuel is having a down season by his standards, defenses still give him respect. Without Brandon Aiyuk or Christian McCaffrey, Samuel and Kittle are the two marquee names on the 49ers’ offense. That plays perfectly into the hands of Jennings who can attack opposing defenses in one-on-one situations while the linebackers and safeties assist with stopping Kittle and Samuel. Jennings has 90+ receiving yards in three of his past five games and should have another big night against the Rams.
Fred Warner Less Than 7.5 Tackles + Assists
Fred Warner is a fantastic player but just like most players on the 49ers, his production has dipped this season. Warner has six or fewer tackles + assists in each of his past four games. Warner is on pace to have the fewest total tackles of any season in his career. The Rams are 22nd in the league in average time of possession per game and 17th in plays per game. They are an offense that relies on explosive plays, creating fewer opportunities for a linebacker to make tackles. They also make most of their throws to Kupp and Nacua on the outside with minimal use of tight ends and running backs in the passing game, again decreasing Warner’s opportunities to pick up tackles. Warner should stay under this number for the fifth straight game.
Puka Nacua More Than 88.5 Receiving Yards
Puka Nacua is having a monster season for the Rams. He left the season-opener against the Lions with an injury and missed a few weeks at the beginning of the season. In his second game back from injury, he was ejected in the first half against the Seahawks. If you excluded those two games in which he didn’t play the entire game, Nacua would be leading the NFL in receiving yards per game with 110.3 YPG. He has surpassed Cooper Kupp as the top target for Matthew Stafford and should be set for another big game against the 49ers.
Nacua had a career-high in receptions last season against the 49ers, snagging 15 receptions for 147 yards. Nacua just had his best game of the season last week against the Bills with 162 yards on 12 catches plus a touchdown. Nacua has gone over this number in five out of six games this season where he has played the full game, and he should do so again in this matchup.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of two or more players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing two or more players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
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