Coming off a bounce-back performance in Week 14 against the Bills, in which Kupp registered several of his longest receptions of the year, including a 17-yard touchdown catch off his turf-burned knee. He hadn’t crossed 80 yards collectively between his past two games before that. His 92 yards on Sunday were his fourth-most so far this year, and tonight he heads to Santa Clara to take on the San Francisco 49ers’ vaunted pass defense on Thursday Night Football.
In recent days, Kupp has been overshadowed by Puka when it comes to the more spectacular pitches-and-catches from QB Matthew Stafford to his receivers. Having said that, Kupp’s route-running ability, utility as a blocker, and absolute ridiculous game IQ and catch-point skills remain elite, even if his speed and durability do not. Even, unfortunately, if his production is not.
But there’s still plenty of volume for Kupp in this Rams’ offense. With that in mind, I’ve got a prop I’m hammering for Coop tonight
Best Cooper Kupp prop bet for Rams vs. 49ers on Thursday Night Football
Cooper Kupp longest reception u21.5 yards (-110)
You’ll see I also took the under on Matthew Stafford’s longest completion market over in this column I wrote earlier. And I do expect the Niners’ secondary to focus, mostly, on Puka Nacua, as he’s been the game-wrecker in the Rams’ passing game of late. Talk about unbelievable body-control-to-catch-point stuff. Unreal.
Having said that, the 49ers have allowed the second-fewest explosive passing plays (15+ yards) on the season. And they’re getting Dre Greenlaw back tonight.
Kupp’s become a little bit more of a checkdown asset for Stafford when things are in rhythm, but he did have three receptions longer than 15 yards against the Bills, but that game feels, to me, to have been an anomaly. The Niners rank fourth in the league in defensive passing DVOA, and they’re getting help back in their front-seven: Dre Greenlaw will make his return, and things will get even harder for number nine in blue-and-yellow in the time-to-pressure category.
Bottom Line
The Rams’ offensive line is mediocre at best, and is still a work in progress. Alaric Jackson might be a total bust, but the return of Rob Havenstein might help net-zero Greenlaw’s return a little bit.
Regardless, I wouldn’t think Stafford’s looking for Kupp much over the middle beyond 15 yards. And, though he’s as healthy as he’s been, this is a big time divisional matchup, and a home game for the Niners’ defense. Expect strong tackles that would negate Kupp’s after-the-catch ability to be shifty.
He’ll be a safety-valve tonight, not a gamebreaker.
Best Bet: Cooper Kupp longest reception u21.5 yards (-110)
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