These are my picks to win every Week 15 NFL game straight up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier. You can bet on any of these games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 15 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Ravens over Giants – The Ravens are coming off of a bye and this is a really favorable spot for them. There is no “hangover” against a bad team where they might not be prepared. After a bye, they should come into this game and dominate Tommy DeVito and the Giants. The Ravens are second in the league in offensive EPA/play while the Giants are 23rd in defensive EPA/play. John Harbaugh is 16-4 in his career off of a bye week and the Ravens should roll in this spot.
Commanders over Saints – The Commanders are another team coming off of a bye week and enter this game as large favorites. Jayden Daniels was a bit banged up for a few weeks, so the extra rest should do him a lot of good. The Commanders have the third-best offense in the league by EPA/play, while the Saints rank 21st. The Saints will struggle to keep up with the Commanders with so many weapons missing and Washington should win the game comfortably.
Vikings over Bears – The Bears are in a really bad spot. They have lost seven straight games heading into this week and they are the only team in the NFL yet to win a road game. In fact, the Bears have lost 20 straight road games played on a Sunday, dating back to 2021. Minnesota has the third-best defense in the NFL by EPA/play compared to the Bears’ offense which ranks 24th in EPA/play. Minnesota should get after Caleb Williams and win the game.
Bengals over Titans – The Bengals’ offense is on fire at the moment. They have their issues on defense, but Will Levis will not be able to take advantage of those issues, especially with no real running game to accompany the passing game. Ja’Marr Chase has been the best wide receiver in the NFL this season and Chase Brown is really emerging as a star at running back. The Titans’ offense ranks 30th in EPA/play and will not be able to keep up with this Joe Burrow-led attack.
Cardinals over Patriots – Since winning their season opener, the Patriots are 2-10 with those wins coming against the 3-10 Jets and the 4-9 Bears. The Cardinals have lost three straight games since taking over first place in the NFC West and now desperately need a win to get back on track. They are in the thick of the divisional race and the Wild Card race and need to keep up with the pack by beating the bad teams on their schedule. The Patriots rank in the bottom-seven in the NFL in offensive and defensive EPA/play and are simply not good enough to beat the Cardinals on the road.
Medium Confidence
Chiefs over Browns – The Chiefs are in medium confidence instead of high confidence because they make every game an absolute nail-biter and give inferior teams like the Panthers and Raiders chances to beat them. However, they are at the top of this tier because they always find a way to win these games, except against the Bills where they were simply outclassed. Meanwhile, the Browns have been competitive the past few weeks but seem to always find a way to lose, usually due to a key mistake by Jameis Winston. These patterns should continue and the Chiefs will win another close game.
Eagles over Steelers – This will be a really tight game between two good teams but the Eagles should have enough at home to win. These are two top-ten defenses, but the Eagles have a decent edge over the Steelers on the offensive side of the ball. The Steelers are just 12th in defensive EPA/rush while the Eagles have the league’s top rushing offense. The Steelers have lost ten straight games in Philadelphia and that streak should continue this week.
Broncos over Colts – The Broncos have been really good when favored this season. The Broncos are 6-0 SU and ATS when listed as favorites. They have the best defense in the league by EPA/play, so when other teams are forced to play from behind, they are in total control. The only time the Broncos have struggled is when Bo Nix is forced to put the team on his back and throw the ball a lot to try to win games. Against the Colts, Denver should control the game and get the win.
Falcons over Raiders – The Falcons have blown their division lead by losing four straight games heading into this matchup. They desperately need a win and this is the perfect spot to get it against a bad Raiders team. The Raiders have lost nine straight games and it’s hard to see that streak ending in this spot. The Falcons get to play indoors, where Kirk Cousins performs much better, and if he can simply avoid bad turnovers, the Falcons should get the win.
Jets over Jaguars – The Jets are another team on a terrible losing streak that needs an easy win. They have lost four straight games but they are actually still playing hard and competing. They lost to the Colts and Seahawks by one score each, both on late game-winning touchdowns. Last week, they lost to the Dolphins in overtime after Miami hit a long field goal to tie the game as time expired. The Mac Jones-led Jaguars have no offensive firepower and can’t exploit the Jets’ defensive issues. The Jets’ offense has actually been playing pretty well and should be able to score against the Jaguars.
Texans over Dolphins – The Texans held on for a much-needed win over the Jaguars before their bye in Week 14. Now they face the Dolphins in a game that they need to win to secure their place atop the AFC South. They have let a big divisional lead get chipped down by the Colts to only two games. The Colts have a tough game in Denver, so if the Texans can win this game, they could make that a three-game lead with three games left to play and feel much more confident closing out the season. The Houston defense is underrated, ranking fourth in the NFL in defensive EPA/play and they will be the key to getting this win.
Coin-Flip Games
Panthers over Cowboys – The Panthers are playing really well and have covered five straight games coming into this matchup. They have played three straight teams that are leading their divisions — the Chiefs, Eagles and Bucs — and have played all three really tight. Now, against the Cowboys, they are in a position to pick up a win. Bryce Young is playing the best football of his NFL career and the Panthers should have enough to take this one.
Chargers over Buccaneers – The Buccaneers are a good, not great team. They have won three straight games against the Raiders, Panthers and Giants. Prior to that winning streak, they had lost four straight games against the 49ers, Chiefs, Ravens and Falcons. They beat bad teams and lose to good teams and that is why they are 7-6 this season. The Chargers’ defense should limit what they can do offensively. Justin Herbert also plays mistake-free football, unlike the quarterbacks they have beaten the past three weeks.
Packers over Seahawks – This should be a really exciting game, but the Packers just have more firepower at the moment. Green Bay ranks eighth in offensive EPA/play compared to Seattle who ranks 17th. These are both top ten defenses by EPA/play, so that side of the ball comes out to a wash. Ultimately, Jordan Love is the quarterback I trust more with the game on the line late in the fourth quarter, so I am backing the Packers here.
49ers over Rams – The 49ers are hopefully on the right track after their dominant win over the Bears last week. The offense looked much better and Brock Purdy should be able to move the ball against the Rams’ defense. The Rams should be able to score in this game, as well, but at home, the 49ers have the slight edge. Matthew Stafford is 2-8 in his career against the 49ers and the 49ers are 2-0 in primetime home games this season. They should win another one here against their division rivals.
Bills over Lions – This is one of the best games of the NFL regular season and one of the hardest to predict. However, I ultimately trust Josh Allen more than Jared Goff if either quarterback needs to lead one big drive to win the game. The Bills and Allen have already lived up to the task once this season, giving the Chiefs their only loss. They should be able to do so again, giving the Lions just their second loss of the season. The Bills are now the best offense in the league by EPA/play and they should be able to outscore Detroit in this game.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
