The Week 15 game between the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills has the highest total on the slate by a wide margin at 54.5. Points are going to be scored and Tim Patrick ($4,300) is coming off a game in which he caught six of seven targets for 43 yards and two touchdowns, good for 22.3 FPTS. Should you fire him up again this week?
Patrick is 6-foot-4, 2018 pounds and runs a 4.52 40-yard dash. He went undrafted in the 2017 NFL Draft. His highwater mark was in the 2021 season when he caught 53 of 85 targets for 734 yards and five touchdowns. He then missed the next two seasons due to a torn ACL and torn Achilles.
In 12 games this season, Patrick has caught 27 of 33 targets for 349 yards and two touchdowns. He has not dropped a pass this season and has notched a respectable 0.09 EPA per route (36th) and 0.56 EPA per target (17th).
Man, those are really good numbers.
That said, volume and opportunity are king and the seven targets garnered last week were a season-high by a wide margin. Prior to that game, Patrick had not received more than four targets. While he may have received some goodwill from his performance last week, I have doubts that he’s elevated up the target totem pole in Detroit.
The passing game is still Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, the running backs and Sam LaPorta.
There could be elevated passing attempts in this one, but the Bills are one of the better units at defending the pass. They have racked up 13 interceptions and blitz at the third-lowest rate in the league, which leaves plenty of defenders in the secondary.
The way to attack Buffalo is on the ground. Unfortunately, most teams have to abandon the run and are forced to pass to catch up. I’m not sure that’s the case this week, as the Lions have one of the most potent rushing attacks in the league, and I can see them grounding and pounding the Bills into submission. If so, then that takes away some passing attempts.
At $4,300, the price isn’t prohibitive, but it’s the first time over $4K on the season and ownership could be high, which adversely affects the risk/reward ratio.
In season-long leagues, with a championship at stake, I don’t think I can rely on him. Could Patrick spike for another touchdown or two again? Sure, anything can happen on any given Sunday, but it’s not a high-probability event.
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