The Commanders are coming back from their bye week in Week 15 with a favorable matchup vs. the Saints. They won’t be at full strength, though, since second receiver Noah Brown (knee, rib) will likely be for the rest of the season, according to coach Dan Quinn. With extra targets available, Zach Ertz ($4,000) becomes a very interesting tight end play against the Saints, so let’s take a look at his fantasy outlook.
Zach Ertz as a TE1
The Commanders have turned things around this year with Jayden Daniels ($7,500) averaging over 20 fantasy points a week and completing almost 70% of his passes in his rookie season. Brown was averaging 5.1 targets per game, ranking third on the team behind only Terry McLaurin ($7,200) and Ertz. More targets will likely go to both options while Brown is out, but Ertz moves from a fringe play to a strong starting option if he gets just a little more work.
Going into the bye, Ertz had three straight games with a touchdown. He finished with a season-high 18.7 fantasy points in Week 11 against his former team, the Eagles and followed that up with 15.8 fantasy points against the Cowboys and 12.5 fantasy points against the Titans.
On the season, the veteran is averaging 10.0 fantasy points per game and 5.8 targets per game. If he picks up a few more targets in Brown’s absence, he will be a top-10 option this week against the Saints. Tight Ends have scored just one touchdown against the Saints this year, but they have averaged 4.9 catches for 55.2 yards per game.
The bottom line
The Commanders are 7.5-point road favorites in New Orleans, and Ertz will be a solid start for the season-long fantasy playoffs due to consistent involvement in Washington’s passing game.
At his salary, he’ll also be a solid play in DFS contests like this week’s NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]. He’s a fairly safe play with so many targets and brings a good touchdown-dependent ceiling.
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