And so we’ve arrived at NFL Week 15: Round 1 of most playoff brackets. Congratulations to those of you who are in the winner’s bracket of your fantasy football playoffs, and a hearty thanks to all those who are still trying in consolation brackets. It’s the time of year when utility assets like fantasy kickers and fantasy defenses can be the fulcrum to your championship hopes.
Let’s break down some matchups, check out some units who might be on the rise, and some matchups that might be worth altogether avoiding this weekend.
Fantasy D/ST: Start ‘Em
Washington Commanders D/ST (at New Orleans Saints; 39.1% rostered)
This pick is about two things, at heart: an above-average pass rush for Washington (led by Dorance Armstrong) and a brutal Derek Carr injury for the Saints. The Saints, as it stands now, are 16-point home underdogs against the visiting Jayden Daniels-led Commanders. 21.1% of leagues are currently starting this Washington unit against the Saints.
It feels like it should be a bit more, no? We’re now in the playoffs, so we’re approaching everything with a single-game elimination mindset. A DFS mindset, almost. And this is a plus-plus matchup.
The Saints’ offense, headed into Week 15, only above-league-average in terms of DVOA in offensive rushing (eighth in the NFL with a 1% ORDVOA), but don’t forget they lost both OT Nick Saldiveri—a second-year tackle on the rise—and Taysom Hill to Injured Reserve. Kendre Miller has looked fairly explosive and a bit dynamic, but not enough for this Saints rush efficiency to whatsoever resemble the numbers it had when Carr/Hill/Kamara were at the helm.
The BYE came at a good time for the Commanders. I like it to have refocused them and helped them re-establish composure in all three phases of the game. I don’t think Jake Haener and/or Spencer Rattler is going to do much to bamboozle this unit. I’m starting them in most leagues.
Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST (vs. New York Jets; 15.8% rostered)
Granted, Aaron Rodgers and the Jets spent Week 14 in Florida and thoroughly bludgeoned any fantasy score for the Miami Dolphins’ D/ST on Sunday (0.0 FPTs precisely). So it’s entirely possible the Jets’ offense is ready to head to Duval County and keep momentum.
But I think the Jags have more playmakers on defense than the Dolphins do. That was a unit that was all fools’ gold against the Rams in Week 10 and the lowly Patriots in Week 12. Beyond that, the Dolphins have been far more inconsistent than the Jags, so I’m not overly concerned about the Jets this week.
I don’t really believe the team has any reason to rush Breece Hall (knee) back, especially considering the ailment is on the leg where he previously tore his ACL. Out of playoff contention, patchwork offensive line, etc. Not to mention, Isaiah Davis looked plenty explosive against the Dolphins.
I don’t think the Jags are going to fall into any traps. This is a game between two non-playoff teams, and I’m just not entirely sure how much I believe Aaron Rodgers is a quarterback married to his broadcasted brand of perfection if he’s got one foot in LaGuardia. The Jaguars’ front-seven will be too much for this offensive line, and the pressure should throw Rodgers off enough that he won’t be able to convert checkdowns to Davis and back-shoulder sideline throws to Davante Adams as much.
Fantasy D/ST: Sit ‘Em
San Francisco 49ers D/ST (vs. Los Angeles Rams; 69.7% rostered)
I’m not sure I really want to go anywhere near these NFC West matchups, especially on short weeks. That division is, for the most part, completely up for grabs. The Seahawks are by no means running away with the division lead. The Cardinals are inconsistent. The 49ers are decimated. And—the Rams, all the sudden, look to be firing on all cylinders.
Sure, that’s a bit of a biased opinion coming off the 44-42 victory over the Buffalo Bills at SoFi. But don’t forget, this is what the 2023 Los Angeles Rams did, too. Started out the year almost non-functionally obliterated by injuries only to run the table in the second half of the year.
You have to believe both the Rams and the Niners had Week 15 circled in a more sanguine red than Week 14, when they both played the Bills and the Bears respectively. The eyes are on the division. Other wins are just extra.
I’m not saying the Rams are going to rout the Niners. But I think they’re the healthier, better-organized, better-coached team right now. And there won’t be any hesitation to keep scoring in this rivalry.
Miami Dolphins D/ST (vs. Houston Texans; 57.1% rostered)
Don’t get burned by this inconsistent unit again. I spoke enough about their failure to contain the Jets in the above segment about starting the Jags this week. But, my goodness, fantasy playoffs are not the time to invest in a team so inconsistent.
Since Week 8, here are their weekly scores: 0.0 FPTs, 2.0, 11.0, 5.0, 14.0, -2.0, 0.
And now they’ve got a home matchup against the healthiest Houston Texans team since maybe Week 1, since they’re fresh off a BYE. The Texans won’t have Juice Scruggs, likely, but no matter. I think the Texans remind us that they’re a legitimate playoff contender—not just playoff-maker—in Week 15 against the Dolphins. Fade this defensive unit hard.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
