To kick off Week 15 of the NFL season, the Los Angeles Rams will travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers.
Neither of these teams find themselves with their desired outlook at this stage in the season. The Rams enter with a 7-6 record, one game behind the Seahawks in the NFC West, and hold +150 odds of making the playoffs on DraftKings Sportsbook. The 49ers sit at 6-7, two games back from the Seahawks in the division, and hold +1000 odds of making the playoffs.
Both these teams are coming off necessary victories last week which kept their season outlook alive. The Rams especially earned theirs in a 44-42 victory over the Buffalo Bills.
The 49ers enter this game as three-point favorites in the matchup and -148 on the moneyline. The Rams are +124 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 49.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Thursday Night thriller.
Brock Purdy Over 246.5 Passing Yards (-115)
After missing a week due to a shoulder injury and then being held to just 94 passing yards in Week 13 against the Bills, Brock Purdy broke out for his best performance last week. Purdy picked apart the Bears’ defense throwing for 325 passing yards, two touchdowns, and recording a season-high 145.4 passer rating.
The former Mr. Irrelevant has a great chance to build off this against a Rams defense that has struggled this year. Los Angeles ranks 24th in points allowed and 27th in yards given up. Looking directly at their pass defense, the Rams rank 24th in passing yards allowed, 25th in passing touchdowns conceded, and 31st in net yards per pass attempt. They have allowed the second-highest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks and given up the fourth-worst EPA per dropback this season.
This will be the second matchup between these two teams with Purdy throwing for 292 yards and three touchdowns in the Week 3 matchup. Even while having a few weeks where he struggled, Purdy is averaging 252.7 passing yards per game on the season. Expect San Francisco to especially lean on the passing attack with so many injuries to their running back and for Purdy to have no problem picking apart the struggling defense in front of him. Count on the 49ers quarterback to throw for over 246.5 passing yards for the eighth time so far this season on Thursday Night Football.
Kyren Williams Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
While this season has not gone as planned for the Rams, Kyren Williams has been a notable bright spot for the organization. The Notre Dame product has played himself into the conversation of best running backs in the NFL and has been incredibly dependable from start to finish this season. Williams has carried the ball 251 times which he has converted to 1,013 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. He is sixth in the NFL in rushing yards and is tied with David Montgomery for the third-most rushing touchdowns in the NFL. The two trail only Derrick Henry and Jalen Hurts in this category.
While they have built up a reputation as a defensive-minded team, San Francisco has struggled on this side of the ball this year. The 49ers rank 21st in points allowed, 12th in rushing yards allowed, 11th in net yards per rush attempt, and 30th in rushing touchdowns conceded. While they held to Bears to just 68 rushing yards as a team last week, San Francisco has not held a team below 94 rushing yards in any of the four weeks prior.
Williams is averaging 77.9 rushing yards per game this season. While this is below the NFL-best 95.3 rushing yards per game he averaged last year, Williams has recorded over 73.5 rushing yards in eight of the 13 games. He has received at least 12 carries in every game and is averaging 19.3 rush attempts per game, so will see plenty of opportunity. Expect the 24-year-old to make the most of these and record over 73.5 rushing yards for the ninth time this season against a struggling defense.
George Kittle Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Tight end production has been disappointing across the NFL this season, but George Kittle has been an exception to this. The Iowa product has been the most consistent offensive weapon for the 49ers this season. Kittle has recorded 56 catches for 800 yards and eight touchdowns thus far. The frustrating loss to the Bills two weeks ago is the only time he has been held below three catches in a game this year.
Kittle had a breakout performance last week as he recorded six catches for 151 yards in the victory over the Bears. Overall, he has recorded over 57.5 receiving yards in six of the 11 games he has played. It should be noted that Kittle missed the Week 3 matchup with the Rams due to injury as Los Angeles came out on top with a 27-24 win.
While the Rams have been relatively successful at limiting the production of tight ends this season, Kittle will be a more prominent offensive weapon than most of their matchups. He has only looked better as the season has progressed and will have a great opportunity to build off his 151-yard performance last week. Outside of the loss to the Bills, Kittle has received four or more targets in every game this year including as many as 12. He should have plenty of opportunities against the mediocre defense and expect Kittle to record over 57.5 receiving yards for the seventh time this season.
Kyren Williams to record 2+ Touchdowns (+330)
Just last week Kyren Williams produced 87 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns across his 29 carries. This marked the third time this season that he has rushed for two touchdowns in a game. Overall, Williams has recorded a rushing touchdown in nine of the 13 games played with 12 total rushing touchdowns on the season. He also recorded two rushing touchdowns against the 49ers in the team’s matchup earlier this year.
In addition to Williams being the top-scoring option for the Rams, this is a particularly vulnerable area for the 49ers’ defense. San Francisco ranks 30th in rushing touchdowns allowed as they have given up 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game.
The +330 odds show this is a risk, but Williams will receive the primary opportunities to score in the red zone against a team that struggles greatly. He has already recorded two touchdowns in a game three times this year including against the very team he is set to line up against. The Rams still have their eyes on forcing their way into the playoffs and will continue to lean on all their best talents. Expect Williams to be heavily involved and take a chance at +330 odds that he can replicate his Week 3 performance against San Francisco.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
