The Rockets host the Warriors in the second of Wednesday night’s two quarterfinal matchups for the NBA Emirates Cup. In addition to their success advancing to the Knockout Round, the Rockets are 16-8 and sit No. 3 in the Western Conference standings. One of the key reasons for their success has been Alperen Sengun ($9,200; knee, questionable), who has played every one of their 24 games, averaging 44.7 fantasy points per contest. He’s in danger of missing his first game of the season on Wednesday night, and if he’s sidelined, there would be lots of usage available in Houston’s frontcourt against the Warriors. Jabari Smith Jr. ($5,300) is one candidate to pick up some of that work if Sengun is sidelined and will be a strong value play in DFS fantasy basketball contests on DraftKings.
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PF/C Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors, $5,300
The Rockets also listed center Steven Adams ($3,400; knee) and forwards Jae’Sean Tate ($3,800; back) and Cam Whitmore ($3,000; wrist) as questionable, along with Sengun. Smith is already playing an average of just under 30 minutes a game on the season, but his time has climbed in his last few games, playing at least 34 minutes in six of his last seven games and each of his last four. In those seven games, Smith has averaged 29.29 DraftKings points per game at the rate of 0.84 fantasy points per minute.
Last week against the Warriors, Smith had 23.25 fantasy points in 37 minutes, finishing with five points, seven rebounds and three blocked shots. He had an even better game in the Rockets’ bounce-back performance on Sunday against the Clippers, posting a double-double with 13 points, 12 rebounds and 35 fantasy points.
If both Sengun and Adams are out, Jock Landale ($3,000) would be the team’s only real center. Going small against the Warriors with Smith at center could be very doable, though, since Golden State loves smaller lineups as well.
Smith’s trending in the right direction and working through his early season shooting woes. He has at least seven rebounds in six of his last seven games, and that work on the glass raises his floor. He is a solid value play to consider for Wednesday regardless of Sengun’s status, but he becomes an even better play if Sengun’s absence opens up more usage.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
