We have a two-game NBA Cup slate on Wednesday, and now that we’re past the group stage, losses now eliminate teams from contention. Teams are playing for a chance to advance to Las Vegas on Saturday, so we’ll be getting everyone’s best effort. I took sides on both of the NBA Cup games on Tuesday, but don’t feel as strongly about Wednesday’s games. I’ll be monitoring for a live play, but do have a player prop in one of the games that I’m firing on.
Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets
This is simply a numbers play for me on Fred VanVleet, who has been struggling this season, despite the step forward Houston has taken as a team. The prop here is set on the player’s averages on the season, which total 26.1 points, rebounds and assists combined (compared to a combined average of 29.3 last season).
However, FVV’s numbers are a bit out of whack, benefitting from a few monster games. VanVleet has gone under 27.5 P/R/A in 16 of his 22 games this season, including both matchups against the Warriors. FVV averages just 20.5 P/R/A against Golden State this season, playing close to 39 minutes per game, including an under that held throughout an overtime game.
In his first season with Houston last year, FVV stayed under in two of three matchups with the Warriors. He averaged just 18.5 P/R/A in the unders, and the lone over was an uncharacteristic 14-assist game. With VanVleet going 16-6 to the under, and the matchup working against him, the numbers force my hand to play on the under here.
PLAY: Fred VanVleet UNDER 27.5 P/R/A (-115) 1-unit
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
