One of the most prolific-yet-puzzling backfields for fantasy football managers to monitor all season has been that of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It has indeed been electrifying: rookie RB Bucky Irving is looking like he might be on the verge of a league-winning asset, and Rachaad White—the longtime starter—is still getting high-value carries, catching check-downs from Baker Mayfield, etc. Many weeks, both White and Irving have been well above-replacement-level running backs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Head Coach Todd Bowles on Bucky Irving and Christian Izien:
“They’re questionable right now,” @BayAreaExaminer #Bucs pic.twitter.com/wrHMDrIJb2— Vanessa Wenzl (@VanessaWenzl17) December 13, 2024
However, despite Bucky Irving’s back tightening up in his Week 14 game against the Raiders, he’s missed practice all week, and is officially questionable for Sunday’s game against the Chargers.
It’s a fair question whether or not fantasy managers would want to roll Rachaad White out there with a healthy-enough-to-play Irving. Let’s dive in.
Rachaad White Week 15 Fantasy Outlook
First off, let’s start with the matchup. Your fantasy platforms might suggest that the Chargers’ run defense is a scarier matchup than it is. Some platforms, like ESPN, have the Chargers ranked as the sixth-best scoring defense against fantasy running backs. That number, for this week, is folly.
The Chargers run defense hasn’t exactly been great of late, however. They rank, on the season, 15th in the NFL in defensive rush DVOA (-9.7%). The Bucs should be able to exploit this just fine. It’s not a red matchup. It’s more yellow-orange. Over the past four weeks, the Chargers have allowed 19.3, 28.7, 28.2, and 14.9 PPR fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Over the last five weeks, Bucky Irving has toted 54 carries, while Rachaad White has snagged 50. Even split. Irving, however, has been much more efficient: he ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing over that time. As such, his EPA/carry is, quite literally, twice as good as White’s: Irving’s EPA/c is 0.10, White’s is -0.10.
Don’t expect that to mean the Bucs aren’t going to split carries, however. That’s pure volume, and we need that in the playoffs.
Second-most important stat? Over that same time period, White has 15 targets, 13 receptions, and 86 yards and two touchdowns. On the year, White has 46 targets, 41 receptions, and and 322 yards. This ranks sixth in the league among running backs across this time.
Rachaad White Week 15 Bottom Line
There’s no way you’re not starting White against the Chargers, at least in a FLEX spot in a PPR league. His carry volume matches Irving’s, even though Irving’s is a bit skewed by missing drives here and there with his back.
But, once more, it’s the receiving we care about. He’s averaging three targets per game, which should be good enough to buoy his entire fantasy outing against LAC such that any rushing value is just icing on the cake.
Start him regardless of Irving’s eventual active/inactive status, and we’ll evaluate the rest of his playoff schedule if he manages to continue his prolific and high-efficiency against the Bolts.
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