Most free agents don’t even have a team yet, but the DraftKings Sportsbook already has MVP odds up for the 2025 MLB campaign. As you would expect, it’s a collection of the top names in the sport, with reigning MVPs Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge both possessing the shortest odds in their respective leagues.
Let’s dive into the numbers and see what’s interesting at first glance.
2025 American League MVP Odds
It’s pretty easy to see why Aaron Judge (+330) is the favorite for this award. The last two times Judge has stayed healthy and taken at least 650 plate appearances in a single season, he’s produced an fWAR of at least 11.0 and he’s won MVP both times. Heck, the only other occasion he’s reached that threshold in his career was back in 2017, when in retrospect, he probably also should have won the prize. Judge was historically good in 2024, hitting 58 home runs and posting a 218 wRC+. If he can lead the Yankees to an AL East crown without the help of Juan Soto, he’ll also have the power of a strong narrative. Remember: This is an award voted on by writers.
Kyle Tucker (+1000) and Jarren Duran (+3500) are two other players to keep an eye on. Tucker was incredible for the 78 games where he was available last season, registering a 180 wRC+. However, his name has been mentioned in trade rumors a lot at the Winter Meetings. Will he even still be in the American League in two weeks? Will he be Judge’s teammate? As for Duran, the 28-year-old finished up his first full MLB season with an All-Star nod and a 6.7 fWAR — the fifth-best mark in the AL. Duran would need to increase his power production to be a true contender, yet the defensive impact and willingness to suit up for 162 games is there. He’s a dark horse.
2025 National League MVP Odds
It’s almost hard to envision a world where Shohei Ohtani (+200) doesn’t win, barring any sort of injury. The vibe heading into last season was that it would be unlikely — maybe impossible — for Ohtani to do enough with the bat to win MVP as a primary DH. Yet, when it was all said and done, the 30-year-old hit 54 home runs and stole 59 bases. Add in a 181 wRC+ and Ohtani wound up with a massive 9.1 fWAR despite generating absolutely zero value in the field. Now, in 2025, he’ll be back to pitching on top of his offensive exploits. There’s a chance that Ohtani eases back on the base paths with the added burden of starting. There’s also a chance that people get voter fatigue. I don’t think it’s going to happen, though.
Juan Soto (+550) is obviously going to generate a lot of interest after signing a $765 million deal with the Mets, yet it’s interesting that his presence has come at the expense of Francisco Lindor (+1600), who finished second to Ohtani MVP voting in 2024. Lindor is an elite defensive shortstop and he’s on the heels of a career-best .382 expected wOBA. He still might be the most valuable player on New York’s roster. Also checking in with 16/1 odds is Ronald Acuna Jr. (+1600). Acuna took home MVP honors in 2023, but keep in mind that he was underwhelming in 2022 — his first season back from a major knee injury. With the news that he’ll likely not be available for Opening Day, I’d be avoiding the Braves’ superstar in any bets.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
