The Cincinnati Bengals will travel to Dallas to face the Cowboys for the final game on the Week 14 slate. Neither team sits in their desired position at this point in the season as the Bengals enter with a 4-8 record while the Cowboys are 5-7.
Heading into the year this was expected to be one of the better Monday Night matchups of the season. The luster has certainly been lost due to the underperformance of both sides, but with just four weeks remaining in the regular season, no football should be taken for granted.
Neither team has been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet, but the Cowboys hold +3000 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to qualify for the postseason while the Bengals hold +1400 odds. A loss tonight will almost certainly put an end to the playoff hopes of either side, so expect some desperation to be shown in their play.
The Bengals enter this game as 5-point favorites and are -225 on the Moneyline. The Cowboys are +185 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 50 for the matchup. With the stage fully set for Monday Night Football, here are four player props I like.
Chase Brown Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
After the Bengals struggled running the football for most of the season, Chase Brown has been an intriguing breakout player toward the tail end of the year. The Illinois product was held to seven or fewer rush attempts through the opening three games, but Brown has seen double-digit carries in every game since. This includes receiving 12 or more carries across each of the past six weeks.
Overall, Brown is averaging 56.4 rushing yards per game this season. However, he has averaged 79.5 rushing yards per game across the past four weeks, including recording 120 rushing yards against the Raiders. This is a great opportunity for Brown to keep up the momentum against a struggling Cowboys’ defense. Dallas ranks 30th in points allowed, 25th in yards given up, 31st in rushing yards allowed, 32nd in rushing touchdowns, and 29th in net yards per rush attempt this season.
With Brown seeing more opportunity and a struggling defense in front of him, expect a big day from the Bengals’ running back. Brown has gone over 75.5 rushing yards in two of the past four weeks and this will be the worst rushing defense he has faced during this time. He has breakaway speed and the ability to make big plays at any moment and will see the vast majority of the backfield carries tonight. Expect him to be active from start to finish this matchup and go over 75.5 rushing yards tonight.
Jake Ferguson Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Expectations were high for Jake Ferguson entering this season, but he has been unable to take the next step in his development. There are a variety of reasons for this. Ferguson should not hold full blame, but he has produced just 43 receptions for 369 yards and has not recorded a touchdown on the season. The outlook remains bleak following the injury to Dak Prescott. Cooper Rush will close out the season as the Cowboys’ starting quarterback.
Even while taking a step back, Ferguson is averaging 41.0 receiving yards per game. He has recorded over 38.5 receiving yards in four of the nine games he has played this season. While Ferguson is coming off just 11 receiving yards last week, he has a favorable matchup against this Bengals team.
Cincinnati’s defense has been the root of all their struggles this season. The Bengals rank 31st in points allowed, 28th in yards given up, 27th in passing yards allowed, 27th in passing touchdowns conceded, and 29th in net yards per pass attempt. The Cowboys remain limited in offensive weapons outside of CeeDee Lamb with Ferguson holding a significant case for being the second most dangerous pass-catcher on the roster. Look for him to make the most of this matchup and provide something to build off moving forward. With Ferguson playing below his standard and a struggling defense in front of him, expect Ferguson to eclipse 38.5 receiving yards tonight.
Cooper Rush Under 235.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The hopes for this Cowboys’ season went out the window when Dak Prescott was shut down for the season due to his hamstring injury. Prescott has missed the past four games and will not return to the field until next season. In his absence, Cooper Rush has stepped in under center and is set to make his 11th start of his career tonight.
Across his four starts this season, Rush is averaging 210.3 passing yards per game. He has shown his highs and lows already, which include being limited to just 45 passing yards against the Philadelphia Eagles while also throwing for 354 yards against the Texans. Rush has been fairly solid in his decision-making and ability to take care of the ball, but simply lacks the arm talent to lead a truly dangerous NFL offense. While the Bengals’ defense has had its struggles throughout the year, expect a better performance tonight. There are talented players on the roster who have not played up to their standard, and the team’s numbers are a bit overinflated due to some weak performances against dangerous teams.
In two matchups with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, Baltimore produced 912 yards of offense and 85 points. Justin Herbert and the Chargers produced 34 points and 452 yards of offense. Last week, Russell Wilson led the Steelers to 44 points and 375 yards of offense. Cooper Rush will not be confused for any of these quarterbacks. Look for Cincinnati to have some more success tonight. Expect Rush to have a few big moments but be held below 235.5 passing yards, just as he has done in two of his four games as a starter.
Joe Burrow 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+185)
There are plenty of possible explanations for why the Bengals have not lived up to expectations, but despite those excuses, Joe Burrow has been excellent this year. Burrow has thrown for 3,337 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, and just five interceptions on the season. He ranks third in total passing yards this season, leads the league in passing touchdowns, and has the most passing yards per game across the NFL.
Burrow has been open about how frustrating this season has been for him. He will leave no doubts in this game as to how good he is. Most of the Bengals’ games have been high-scoring matchups and Cincinnati’s defense has been unable to get stops when it matters most. Cooper Rush will be unable to match Burrow’s production and he will push the envelope to do everything possible to put the game out of reach as early as possible.
Dallas ranks 10th in passing yards allowed, 18th in passing touchdowns conceded, and 27th in net yards per pass attempt. Burrow has thrown for three or more touchdowns in six of the 12 games this season, and Dallas falls on the lower end of the quality of defenses he has faced. With desperation in full swing, Burrow will be prepared to do everything possible to put the Bengals on the pathway to victory. Getting +185 odds for Burrow to throw three touchdowns is great value, and expect tonight to be the seventh time this season he has accomplished this feat.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
