Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as Questionable up until game time, with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects the Knicks’ Karl-Anthony Towns to have a 50% chance to play tonight at Toronto. Towns missed the Knicks’ last game and is currently Questionable with a right knee injury.
With only one game on tonight’s NBA slate, Karl-Anthony Towns’ status will have massive impact for tonight’s DraftKings DFS tournaments as well as prop betting markets. Towns is barely behind Jalen Brunson atop the Knicks’ usage rates, with 28.4% usage on the year. He also rebounds at a gaudy 22.9% clip and his 13.9% assist rate leaves a ton of possessions behind for the other Knicks.
If Towns were to play tonight, he’d project as a top play on the night’s DraftKings Showdown slate with a projection of 25 points, 13.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists.
If Towns sits, his teammates would see the following changes to their expected production according to Unabated’s Conditional NBA projections:
- Jalen Brunson projects for 31.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 8 assists (26.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 7.4 assists if Towns is in)
- Josh Hart projects for 14.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 6.3 assists (12.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 6 assists if Towns is in)
- OG Anunoby projects for 20.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 2.5 assists (15.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.3 assists if Towns is in)
- Mikal Bridges projects for 19.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 3.6 assists (16.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 3.4 assists if Towns is in)
If Towns is out, all of the above players would look substantially better as DFS plays on tonight’s Showdown slate. There’d also be immense value for the Knicks in player prop markets. Unabated currently projects Bridges for 16.6% Expected Value on his market over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists line on DraftKings Sportsbook while there’s a gaudy 32.5% EV on Jalen Brunson’s over 36.5 PRAs line if Towns were to sit.
Prepare to react quickly for DFS and prop betting if Towns misses another game tonight.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
