It’s Week 15 and we are finally done with those pesky byes. It’s time to “I Spy with my Little Eye” the players that will take our lineups to the sky. We can no longer be shy because the number of slates are now in short supply, soon to vanish, waving goodbye. We must take the player pool, put them in the wok and fry. If hot burning oil splashes our face, we must grit our teeth and power through like Sly. Because that is the only way to pry from the universe, the knowledge needed to crack the code. We must channel our inner Bill Nye so that we can end up like Joseph Tsai.
There are 12 games on the main slate. DraftKings Sportsbook has six games with an O/U of at least 45: KC/CLE (46), MIA/HOU (47), CIN/TEN (47.5), TB/LAC (46.5), BUF/DET (54) and NE/ARI (46). There is one game with a total of 40 or below: NYJ/JAX (40.5).
There is one double-digit spread favorite: BAL -14.5 over NYG. There are four games within a field goal: HOU -3 over MIA, CAR -1 over DAL, LAC -2.5 over TB and DET -2 over BUF.
DISCLAIMER: This piece is written early in the week, so it won’t factor in injuries or lineup changes that occur closer to Sunday.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions ($8,500) – In the first five games of the season, Allen had two sub-10 FPTS games, but went over 30 FPTS twice. Over the next seven games, Allen was a model of consistency, finishing in the 20-to-28 FPTS range in all of those contests. In Week 14, he exploded for a whopping 54.88 FPTS, as he threw for three touchdowns and rushed for three touchdowns. And that is why he is always in play to pay up for because the floor/ceiling combo is so high. This week, he faces the Lions in what could be a Super Bowl preview. This game has the highest total on the slate by a wide margin, and we just saw what happens when the Bills are pushed to be more aggressive offensively.
Other Options – Lamar Jackson ($8,300), Jalen Hurts ($8,000), Jayden Daniels ($7,500), Joe Burrow ($7,300), Bo Nix ($6,300), CJ Stroud ($6,200), Tua Tagovailoa ($6,100)
Value
Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,400) – Rodgers has finished with at least 20 FPTS only three times this season, but one of those came last week, the first time exceeding 300 yards in a game. This week, he faces a Jaguars team that has allowed the highest EPA per dropback by a wide margin, while posting the third-lowest sack rate and second-lowest quarterback pressure rate.
Other Options – Kyler Murray ($6,000), Drake Maye ($5,600), Cooper Rush ($5,200)
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Running Back
Stud
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants ($8,300) – Henry has scored double-digit FPTS in every game this season, with five of those at least 28 FPTS and two over 30. The high on the season is 38.9 FPTS. There should be no game script issues in this one as the Ravens are favored by a whopping 14.5 points. The Giants have allowed the sixth-highest EPA per carry and the second-highest yards per carry. Henry is going to eat. The only question is how much?
Other Options – De’Von Achane ($7,900), Joe Mixon ($7,800), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500), Chase Brown ($7,200), David Montgomery ($7,000), Tony Pollard ($6,700), Chuba Hubbard ($6,500), Brian Robinson ($6,200), Rico Dowdle ($6,100)
Value
Braelon Allen, New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,400) – With Breece Hall out last week, Allen and Isaiah Davis split the work down the middle. Allen played in 37 snaps while Davis was in on 36. Allen received five targets while Davis got six. Allen had two red zone looks while Davis got four. I think both Allen and Davis are fine options against a Jaguars run defense that has allowed the fifth-highest EPA per carry. I’m siding with Allen because I’m thinking the ownership will be lower since he’s $400 more expensive and Davis scored three more FPTS last week.
Other Options – Isaiah Davis ($5,000)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans ($8,400) – Chase has a ceiling that is unrivaled, as he’s gone for 44.3 and 58.4 FPTS this season. He caught 10-of-12 targets for 193 yards and two touchdowns while hauling in 11-of-17 targets for 264 yards and three touchdowns. Crazy. He has only one sub-10 FPTS game this season, and that came all the way back in Week 2. Over the last five games, Chase has exceeded 20 FPTS in four with that 58.4 FPTS. He’s received double-digit targets in four of those contests.
Other Options – Nico Collins ($8,100), Tyreek Hill ($7,400), CeeDee Lamb ($7,300), Davante Adams ($6,900), Tee Higgins ($6,800), Garrett Wilson ($6,500)
Value
Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Mavericks ($5,400) – Thielen returned to action in Week 12 after missing eight weeks. He caught three of four targets for 57 yards in his return, getting acclimated. Over the last two weeks, though, there’s been a renaissance, as he’s received 11 and 10 targets, hauling in nine and eight for 102 and 99 yards. He’s gone over 20 FPTS in those contests.
Other Options – Calvin Ridley ($5,900), Elijah Moore ($5,000), Quentin Johnston ($5,000)
Tight End
Stud
David Njoku, David Njoku vs. Kansas City Chiefs ($5,400) – Jameis Winston loves him some crab legs and Njoku, as he’s peppered the tight end with 13 and 17 targets over the last two games. He’s scored three touchdowns over that span, resulting in 17.2 and 26.2 FPTS. The Chiefs have allowed the third-most FPTS on average to the position with the most receptions and yards.
Other Options – Trey McBride ($6,000), Jonnu Smith ($5,400)
Value
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints vs. Washington Commanders ($3,400) – The tight end position for New Orleans received 18 targets two weeks ago. Johnson had seven, Taysom Hill got seven and Foster Moreau garnered four. Hill is out for the season, so Johnson received five targets last week, finishing with four receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown. Derek Carr is out, so he could become a blankie for Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener.
Other Options – Sam LaPorta ($4,400), Hunter Henry ($4,300), Pat Freiermuth ($3,900)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Commanders DST at New Orleans Saints ($3,400) – Washington is favored by 7.5 points on the road in New Orleans. They will likely have no problems scoring points, forcing the Saints to respond aggressively in due kind. Unfortunately, it’s either going to be Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener under center. Washington is ninth in sack rate.
Other Options – Ravens DST ($3,900), Chiefs DST ($3,700), Broncos DST ($3,200)
Value
Jets DST at Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,000) – The Jets are fifth in sack rate and seventh in pressure rate. Now the unit gets to face off against Mac Jones. The Jets DST has four double-digit FPTS games on the season.
Other Options – Cardinals DST ($3,000)
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
