The Cincinnati Bengals will travel to Dallas tonight to take on the Cowboys in the final game of the NFL Week 14 slate.
Neither team is thrilled with their outlook at this point in the season, with both the Bengals and Cowboys having a case for being the biggest disappointment in the NFL. Regardless, the season continues on and both teams will be looking to keep their faint playoff hopes alive when they face off tonight.
The Bengals enter as 4.5-point favorites and hold -218 odds on the Moneyline. The Cowboys are +180 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the game total is set at 50.5 points.
There are far more ways to get involved in the action than just traditional betting. One of the more unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Football!
Bengals at Cowboys Pick6 Plays
The Cincinnati Bengals enter this game with a 4-8 record and hold just a 3% chance of making the playoff according to NFL.com’s analytics. Joe Burrow has played some of the best football of his career but the team has been weighed down by defensive issues and come out on the wrong side of several close games. Of their eight losses, only one game was decided by more than one possession, and two losses were decided by just one point. Despite being 4-8, Cincinatti holds an average scoring margin of just -0.4.
It has not been quite the same story for the Cowboys, who have looked overmatched in several games this season. They hold a record of 5-7 but have an average scoring margin of -7.6 which ranks 26th in the league. The season fully went off the rails when Dak Prescott was shut down for the year due to a hamstring injury. While Dallas has not been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, expectations have decreased significantly with Cooper Rush holding down the starting quarterback job.
With the stage set, here are my top Pick6 choices for the Week 14 Monday night matchup.
Chase Brown More Than 109.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards
The Cincinnati Bengals have struggled to run the football for most of this season. As a team, they rank 26th in rush attempts, 23rd in rushing yards, and 27th in rushing touchdowns. Finally, as the season progressed, Chase Brown emerged as the solution to this issue. After being held to seven or fewer rush attempts through the opening three games, Brown has taken double-digit carries in every game since, including 12 or more carries in each of the past six weeks. In addition, the Illinois product has made his presence felt in the passing game, recording at least two catches in all but one game this year.
Looking at the season overall, Brown has averaged 56.4 rushing yards and 19.8 receiving yards per game. However, he has increased his output in recent weeks, recording at least 100 yards from scrimmage in three of the past four weeks. Brown has logged as many as 157 yards from scrimmage this season and has a great chance to produce a similar output against a struggling Cowboys defense.
On the season overall, Dallas ranks 30th in points allowed, 25th in yards given up, 31st in rushing yards allowed, 32 in rushing touchdowns conceded, and 29th in net yards per rush attempts. Brown has made the most of his uptick in opportunity in recent weeks and has a great chance to build off this tonight. He has recorded more than 109.5 rushing and receiving yards in two of the past four weeks, and this matchup is the weakest defense the Bengals have faced lately. Brown has big play potential on every touch, so look for him to break free for more than 109.5 yards from scrimmage tonight.
Jalen Tolbert More Than 2.5 Receptions
This may not be the most exciting selection in the world, but Jalen Tolbert has been a model of consistency this season. The third-year pass catcher has tallied at least two receptions in every game this season except for Week 1. He has recorded three or more receptions in eight of the 12 games and has an overall average of 3.3 receptions per game on the season.
Similar to the Cowboys, Cincinnati has been let down by their defense in a major way this season. They rank 31st in points allowed and 28th in yards conceded. Looking specifically at their pass defense, the Bengals rank 27th in passing yards and touchdowns allowed, and rank 29th in net yards per pass attempt.
Outside of CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys are fairly limited in terms of weapons. Jalen Tolbert has done a great job stepping up into this role and has nearly doubled his both yardage and receptions output from last season. With Cincinnati’s offense looking sharp, don’t be surprised if the Cowboys fall behind early and are forced to attack through the air, which would provide Tolbert with additional opportunities. While Cooper Rush is not nearly as dangerous as Dak Prescott, he has been responsible with the ball and had some decent moments. Look for Tolbert to record more than 2.5 receptions for the ninth time this season tonight.
Joe Burrow More Than 282.5 Passing Yards
While the team’s record does not reflect it, Joe Burrow has been playing incredible football this season. The LSU product has thrown for 3,337 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, and just five interceptions. He ranks third in the NFL in total passing yards, leads the league in passing touchdowns, and has recorded the most passing yards per game across the entire league.
Overall, Burrow is averaging 278.1 passing yards per game and has thrown for more than 282.5 passing yards in five of the 12 games. This includes three-straight games leading into this matchup. He has a great chance to build off this against a Cowboys defense that has had its struggles this year. Dallas ranks 10th in passing yards allowed, 18th in passing touchdowns conceded, and 27th in net yards per pass attempt.
Desperation is in full swing for Burrow and the Bengals, so expect the quarterback to lead an all-out attack tonight. He has been vocal about how frustrating the season has been… don’t expect Burrow to let his foot off the gas in this game. Count on the franchise quarterback to throw for more than 282.5 passing yards for the fourth-straight game and have some great success dicing up the Cowboys’ defense tonight.
Cooper Rush Less Than 242.5 Passing Yards
On the other side of the quarterback battle, there is not as much reason for optimism surrounding Cooper Rush. The Central Michigan product is set to make his 11th NFL start tonight and the fifth so far this season. The highs and lows of Rush have already been put on display, including throwing for as many as 354 yards against the Houston Texans while also being limited to just 45 passing yards against the Philadelphia Eagles. Across his four starts this season, Rush is averaging 210.3 passing yards per game.
Rush has been fairly solid in his decision-making and ability to take care of the ball, but does not possess the level of arm talent that it takes to be a high-level NFL quarterback. While there has been plenty of discussion about the struggles of the Bengals’ defense, the numbers have been a bit distorted due to dangerous teams pouring on impressive offensive outputs. In two matchups against the Bengals, Baltimore produced 85 points and 912 total yards of offense. Cincinnati allowed 34 points and 452 yards of offense to the Chargers, and just last week Russell Wilson and the Steelers produced 44 points and 375 yards of offense.
While Cincinnati has its struggles, these games have inflated their concerns a bit more than in reality. There are still some talented players on the Bengals’ defense and it will not be a walk in the park for Rush tonight. Ultimately, expect Rush to have his flashes but to fall short of 242.5 passing yards in tonight’s matchup.
Rico Dowdle Less Than 0.5 Rushing & Receiving TDs
The Cowboys have struggled to get any sort of regular production from their running game this season. On the season overall, they rank 31st in rushing yards and dead-last in rushing touchdowns produced. The team has attempted to address things by handing the job to Dowdle as the top running back. The 26-year-old is coming off his best game of the season last week, in which he tallied 22 carries for 112 yards and a touchdown.
Unfortunately, this also marks his only rushing touchdown of the entire season. While he also has three receiving touchdowns, there simply has not been enough scoring volume to feel confident in Dowdle replicating this. Dallas ranks last in rushing touchdowns for a reason, and this will only be magnified by the absence of All-Pro guard Zach Martin.
While Dowdle will continue to be involved in the offense, he went three weeks without a touchdown before last week and has been held out of the end zone in seven of the 11 games he has played overall. Expect Dallas to have limited scoring opportunities in this matchup and for Dowdle to be held out of the end zone for the eighth time.
Jake Ferguson More Than 38.5 Receiving Touchdowns
It has not been quite the season that Jake Ferguson had hoped for. Expectations were high for the young pass catcher as it seemed he would take the next step into the elite tier of tight ends, but he has not fully made the leap. Overall, Ferguson has recorded just 43 receptions for 369 yards and has not tallied a touchdown this season.
Even while taking a step back, Ferguson is averaging 41.0 receiving yards per game. He has recorded more than 38.5 receiving yards in four of the nine games this season and has a favorable matchup against the Bengals.
Overall, Cincinnati ranks 31st in points allowed, 28th in yards given up, 27th in passing yards allowed, 27th in passing touchdowns conceded, and 29th in net yards per pass attempt. Dallas is fairly limited in their number of weapons and there is a case to be made for Ferguson being the second-most dangerous offensive option, only behind CeeDee Lamb. Expect Ferguson to see opportunities throughout the game and record more than 38.5 receiving yards against the struggling Bengals’ defense.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (“Pick Set”) of at least two players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must select players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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