The Los Angeles Chargers will travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs and put a bow on the Week 14 Sunday slate. This AFC West matchup carries some additional weight with both teams in the playoff picture and the Chargers playing some impressive football of late.
Kansas City enters the game with an 11-1 record and is one of three teams to have already clinched their playoff berth. While they have not been as dominant as their sky-high bar of expectations commands, the Chiefs are tied with the Philadelphia Eagles with the second-best odds of winning the Super Bowl at +500 as they search to become the first team in NFL history to win in three consecutive seasons.
The Chargers have emerged as a darkhorse threat in the AFC with Justin Herbert continually improving as the season has progressed. Los Angeles has held opponents to the fewest points on the season and has won five of their past six games entering tonight’s matchup.
The Chiefs enter this game as 4-point favorites and -218 on the moneyline. The Chargers are +180 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 42.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Sunday night clash.
Kareem Hunt Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
The Kansas City Chiefs received some positive injury news last week as Isiah Pacheco returned from his broken leg after his nine-game absence. In his absence, Kareem Hunt was brought back to the organization and has performed at a high level. Across nine games, Hunt ran for 592 yards and five touchdowns. Kansas City is still figuring out how they will split carries but expect Hunt to continue to have a larger role than some are expecting.
Last week marked the first game in which both running backs were active with both receiving seven carries. While Pacheco outperformed Hunt, recording 44 rushing yards compared to 15, 34 of these yards came on a single carry. The Chargers have a tough defense but have shown some vulnerabilities against the run. They have allowed the fewest overall points, but Los Angeles ranks 14th in rushing yards allowed and 23rd in net yards per rush attempt.
Both Pacheco and Hunt have a hard-nosed style of running that will be necessary for this matchup. Expect both running backs to see some opportunity in this game and for Hunt to make the most of his carries. Last week marked the only time this season he has been held below 33.5 rushing yards this season, and he will be able to outperform the 2.1 yards per carry he logged last week. The 33.5 line is too low for Hunt and it could take just one broken run for him to reach this. Expect Hunt to remain involved in the offense and get back on the right track recording over 33.5 rushing yards tonight. The dual options at running back can only make the Chiefs offense more dangerous and look for them to explore this a bit more tonight.
Justin Herbert Over 249.5 Passing & Rushing Yards (-115)
After the Chargers leaned heavily on their rushing attack and defense for success through the first few weeks, Justin Herbert has been unleashed. On the season overall, he is averaging 212.6 passing yards per game, although he has gone over this mark in six of the past eight weeks.
In addition, Herbert has showcased his ability with his legs a bit more this season. The Chargers franchise quarterback has attempted four or more rush attempts in each of the past five weeks and eight of the 12 games on the season overall. He has recorded as many as 65 rushing yards in a game this season and has looked more willing to ad-lib and take off on the scramble in recent weeks.
After a strong start to the season, the Chiefs’ defense has faded in recent weeks. Overall they rank eighth in both points and yards allowed. However, the Chiefs rank just 23rd in passing yards allowed and 19th in net yards per pass attempt. While Herbert has a strong chance to throw for more than 249.5 yards alone, which he has done four of the past seven weeks, keep the rushing combination factored in for a bit more security.
Noah Gray Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Travis Kelce headlines the tight-end production for Kansas City, but Noah Gray has taken a huge leap forward in his production this season. Across the opening 12 games, Gray has tallied 31 receptions for 373 yards and four touchdowns. He has already recorded a career-high in receiving yards and has tallied two or more receptions in nine of the 12 games including five games with four catches.
Gray has recorded over 26.5 receiving yards in six of the 12 games and tallied 66 receiving yards twice. Even beyond this, Gray has logged over 50% of offensive snaps in every game this season and 72% or greater twice. Kansas City has relied on the two tight end sets heavily this year and Gray has been given the freedom to run routes far more often.
While Kelce will still be a factor, expect there to be enough opportunity for both tight ends to have success. Gray recorded four receptions for 40 yards in the first matchup with the Chargers and should expect similar results tonight. Capitalize on the low number of 26.5 receiving yards and expect his importance in the offense to continue with the postseason on the horizon.
Kareem Hunt Anytime TD (+210)
While the level of opportunity for the two running backs is unclear across the board, this is especially true in the red zone. Pacheco has scored just one rushing touchdown across his three games played while Kareem Hunt has recorded five rushing touchdowns across his nine games. Looking at last week when both were active, each running back got one rushing opportunity with them combining for five yards with both unable to get in the end zone.
Hunt has done more in his opportunities at the goal line when looking at the wider view. Isiah Pacheco recorded just seven rushing touchdowns last year as the clear top back and was limited to five rushing touchdowns the ear before. While it was back in 2017, Hunt recorded eight rushing touchdowns as the featured running back with the Chiefs and also recorded nine rushing touchdowns across his 15 games with the Browns last year.
Pacheco holds +100 odds of a rushing touchdown in tonight’s game while Hunt holds +210 odds. With the pecking order unclear and Hunt with a stronger track record, there is value in taking the bigger swing. Expect both to play a role in this game, but don’t be surprised if Hunt wins the job as the red zone back and look for this to start with him finding paydirt tonight.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
