The NBA season sits roughly at its 25% point and the early takeaways of the season are beginning to be established. Plenty of basketball remains to be played, but some surprising teams have emerged in both conferences throughout the early weeks.
The season will continue today with seven games of NBA action taking place. The opening game tipped off between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Charlotte Hornets.
Looking at the night slate, there are six games taking place. The Oklahoma City Thunder will face the New Orleans Pelicans and the Denver Nuggets will play the Washington Wizards, with both games tipping off at 7:10 PM EST. In the 7:40 PM EST window, the New York Knicks will play the Detroit Pistons while the Dallas Mavericks face off with the Toronto Raptors. Finally, in the 8:10 PM EST window, the Phoenix Suns will tip off against the Miami Heat while the Boston Celtics face the Memphis Grizzlies.
You can check out each matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook, but here are my favorite player props for December 7.
Trey Murphy III Over 13.5 Points (-130)
The New Orleans Pelicans have headlined the injury issues across the NBA this season. The team has spent multiple games with more money committed to injured players compared to the available players on the court. While they are still inching toward full strength, these issues have presented opportunities for other players to step up and Trey Murphy III has leaped at this chance after returning from his injury.
Across the 10 games that Murphy has played this season, he has averaged 17.5 points, 4.6 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game. The Virginia product is taking a career-high 15.0 field-goal attempts per game with 8.1 of these attempts coming from beyond the three-point arc. He ranks in the 85th percentile across the NBA in minutes, playing 32.7 per game on the season. Murphy has played in attack mode and helped fill the scoring need for the team. Overall, the 24-year-old has recorded over 13.5 points in eight of the 10 games he’s been active for.
The Pelicans will face the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. The Thunder have an impressive defense, holding opponents to the second-fewest points, and a more talented overall roster. However, Murphy has shown some progress in his creation off the dribble and will have success freeing himself up with his off-ball movement. He is coming off his fewest field-goal attempts this season with 11 last game and still finished with 19 points in the victory. Expect there to be enough shot volume available for Murphy to make his impact felt in the box score and for the young forward to record over 13.5 points for the ninth time this season.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+145)
After some brief growing pains in the first few games of the season, Karl-Anthony Towns has settled in with this Knicks team and has been exactly the fit they hoped. Through the opening 21 games, Towns has averaged 25.2 points, 13.2 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game. He is shooting 45.0% on three-point attempts while launching 5.2 perimeter shots per game, which has come out to an average of 2.3 made three-pointers per game so far this season.
While the three-point volume is still not the level we have seen from Towns in the past, this is a matchup where he should look to attack from the perimeter more often. The Knicks will face off with the Pistons tonight. Detroit ranks 16th in opponent points allowed, 15th in opponent three-point attempts and 26th in opponent three-point percentage. It is headlined defensively by Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart, who each average 2.0 or more blocks per 36 minutes and are most comfortable when purely serving as rim protectors.
Expect the Knicks to make it a focus to bring these interior big men out to the perimeter where Towns will have a notable advantage. The four-time All-Star has made over 2.5 three-pointers in seven games this season, even while attempting just two three-point attempts in four of the first six games. He has seen more opportunity on offense since the early games and there is still room for him to grow. With a favorable matchup and Towns being at his best when attacking from beyond the arc, capitalize on the +145 odds for the former No. 1 overall pick to knock down over 2.5 three-pointers in tonight’s game.
RJ Barrett Over 4.5 Assists (-148)
The playmaking leap is here for RJ Barrett. Across the five seasons he spent with the New York Knicks, Barrett never averaged more than 3.3 assists per game throughout a season. After being traded to the Raptors last year, Barrett averaged 4.1 assists across his final 32 games with the team. He took another leap forward this season and is averaging 6.0 assists per game on the season.
This playmaking leap is due to a variety of reasons. Barrett is playing a different role on this Raptors offense, there has been more motion and ball movement compared to his time with the Knicks, and he also looks to be reading the game at a better rate this season. Barrett is logging a career-high 29.8% usage rate and being given the freedom to generate offense. The Duke product has tallied as many as 15 assists in a game this season and recorded over 4.5 assists in 12 of the 20 games.
Toronto will prepare to face off with the Dallas Mavericks tonight. Dallas ranks 11th in opponent points per game and 18th in assists allowed this season. This will be the first matchup between these two teams this season, but Barrett did produce six assists for the Raptors in last season’s matchup with the Mavericks. The -148 odds are steep but expect Barrett to continue to be heavily involved in the playmaking for Toronto. If you are feeling bold you can explore some alternate lines, but feel confident in Barrett recording over 4.5 assists tonight.
Desmond Bane Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+145)
The Memphis Grizzlies will be the next team to attempt to slow down the defending champion and title-favorite Boston Celtics. The biggest factor to consider when facing the Celtics is the uptick in the three-point volume required. Boston leads the NBA in three-point attempts with 51.0 per game as a team. This is well above the 42.0 it averaged last season and seven (!) more attempts than the Charlotte Hornets, who are second in this category this season with 44.0 long-range attempts per game. Trading two points for three is a losing formula and opponents must adjust to this long-range volume to remain competitive.
Look for Desmond Bane to be the primary Grizzlies player positively impacted by this opportunity. He leads the team in three-point attempts this season at 5.7 per game but is connecting at just a 31.9% rate. Both these numbers are well below Bane’s career averages of shooting 41.0% from beyond the arc on 6.4 three-point attempts. He also attempted 8.6 three-pointers per game last season.
Memphis has played with the quickest pace of any team in the NBA when playing on the road this season. It also ranks as the fourth-best offensive rebounding team over the past five games and the eighth-best this season overall. These extra possessions will be a storyline to watch but expect an uptick in three-point volume regardless. Bane has only hit over 2.5 made three-pointers in three of the 16 games this season but is due for some positive shooting regression. Expect this matchup to present the opportunity and for Bane to be ready to let it fly. While it should also be noted he is listed as questionable with a toe injury, if Bane can go, he should be ready for plenty of long-range opportunities.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
