Whether you like the format or not or think we’re getting the best 12 teams, the College Football Playoff format is locked in and we got one last set of rankings this week before the final bracket is released on Sunday following conference championship weekend.
Jordan Brenner and Peter Keating, no matter what they think of the teams and their rankings, wanted to look at potential “underdogs” who could cause some chaos in the bracket.
Jordan says that the cool thing about the 12-team CFP is that there’s no history to look back at. Unlike March Madness or the World Cup or the Olympics or the NFL, there’s no data to pour over for the 12-team CFP to mine for trends. The guys have no idea if good defensive teams cause upsets more than good offensive teams. They have no idea if games with low totals are more ripe for upsets. But, they can draw lessons from what they’ve learned about underdogs in all other settings. Thus, Jordan and Peter think three things will matter, generally, for an upset:
- Some teams will be under-seeded and underappreciated — Peter points out that when you find a team that is ranked lower than it’s actual strength, they’re likely to do better than people expect.
- Highly inconsistent teams are good as underdogs — Peter says you’d rather be really good at one thing or really good on your best day so that you expand your variance or the chances you can upset a better opponent.
- Teams that are unlucky are likely to rebound because they will regress to the means.
Peter says you can put those three things together to begin to get a picture of what any underdog might need in order to knock off a “better” or higher-seeded opponent. And Jordan points out that there’s no established set of rules like the guys have for their bracket breakers in college basketball. You might have a 4 vs. 5 game, for instance, with a spread of a touchdown or more. Not to mention the fact that home-field advantage is at play in the 12-team CFP.
So who is legitimately dangerous as a lower-seed in the CFP? Jordan starts with those plucky underdogs from Tuscaloosa, the Crimson Tide. Alabama sits at No. 11 in the most recent rankings and has +1500 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to win the national title. Peter points out that Alabama’s scoring margin and strength of schedule are basically equivalent to No. 1 Oregon’s. He says they’ve been HORRIBLY unlucky — in luck rankings, Peter points out that they rank something like 105th among FBS teams. Boasting a top-10 offense and defense, they’re going to sit at the bottom of the bracket when in reality Peter says they’re probably one of the five or six best teams in the country. Thus, Alabama is a DANGEROUS “underdog” in the same way that the Yankees would make for a dangerous “underdog.”
Jordan points out that the teams that are decidedly NOT good underdogs are some of the weakest teams in the field. Jordan says matter who wins the Big 12, Iowa State or Arizona State, they have nothing going for them based on the factors he and Peter have identified. Both Iowa State and Arizona State have been lucky, he says, and they’re consistent — which means they haven’t flashed ceiling or floor games and are instead just plodding along. They’re solid, milquetoast teams that will get in and get waxed.
So does this, tied with the fact that the best potential underdog Ole Miss won’t likely get in, support the idea that the biggest underdogs in the 12-team CFP format will likely be what Jordan and Peter refer to in college basketball as “wounded assassins” — i.e. two- or three-loss teams from the SEC and Big Ten? Peter points out a team with double-digit losses in college hoops won’t get a high seed even if they’re playing strong, getting healthy and improving. In this analogy, that’s South Carolina. He says South Carolina is outstanding, one of the best defensive teams in the country right now and they’ve been inconsistent because they’ve been getting better every week. If a team like that gets into the CFP, that’s the type of “underdog” to look for.
Watch or listen to the whole show below and make sure to keep an eye on the Underdogs podcast feeds on Apple and Spotify as well as the new Underdogs YouTube page for future episodes!
Watch the full episode below!
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Be sure to check out more episodes of Underdogs on the Underdogs YouTube page and subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts! You can also follow Peter on X at @PeterKeatingNJ and Jordan at @JordanBrenner.
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