GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” NFL names your dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough. Guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about, but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 14.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
Top DFS Stack
Game Stack: Bills at Rams
Josh Allen ($8,000) – Amari Cooper ($5,100) – Khalil Shakir ($5,600) – Kyren Williams ($7,300)
It’s possible the Bills come in and try to run over the Rams, but the Rams have just as good a chance to pull the same trick on the Bills in this spot, who have now allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. Rams RB Kyren Williams lost some early snaps to Blake Corum last week but reestablished himself as the lead back late in that contest vs the Saints when he iced the game with some big runs. After a brief lull, he recorded his fourth game with 20+ DKFP in Week 13 and still has a very manageable salary at $7,300, which makes him a good contrarian way to attack this game, where the opposing RB in James Cook may have higher ownership.
If we’re playing for a big game from Williams, then it only makes sense to come back with Allen as our QB, who is expensive but is also playing in a dome, where he’s tended to use his legs a little more. Allen’s two dome starts this season have resulted in him gaining 50+ yards on the ground and any scenario where the Rams are using Williams heavily and potentially leading would result in more dropbacks and potentially rushes for Allen.
Pairing him with one WR in this spot is a must. The Rams secondary has improved since the beginning of the season but they’re still not an elite unit and struggle guarding against elite downfield stretches. Last week Marquez Valdes-Scantling got behind them for a long score and names like AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, and more recently Jaxon-Smith Njigba have posted massive days against this defense of late.
If I had to choose one Bills WR for a big GPP lineup, I would go the contrarian route and use Cooper, who brings down the overall cost of this stack and seems like he might finally be over some wrist concerns that have hampered him all season. The Rams’ undersized corners are also a great matchup for Cooper, who hasn’t seen a ton of usage yet but has been playing well, posting a 76% catch rate and averaging 2.1 yards of separation since joining the Bills.
Of course, with Khalil Shakir posting target shares in excess of 25% in each of his last three games, you wouldn’t be out of your mind to double-stack Allen in this spot either. With both Bills WRs under 6k this week, the opportunity is there for both to return 3x-or-more value. Using both resolves you of the headache of choosing which one you think might explode for the big day that will lift your lineup from the top 10-15% of lineups to the top 1%.
Quarterback
Will Levis ($5,000)
Will Levis is going to be on a lot of people’s shortlists for QB this week, so don’t expect him to be 2% owned. Still, QB ownership %’s rarely get that high thanks to most people looking to use game stacking as a strategy and there are still ways we can differentiate any Levis lineup.
The bottom line is that Levis is playing well and has a fantastic matchup, which makes him hard to ignore at just 5k in price. The Jaguars have allowed a league-worst 8.6 yards per attempt against and may be without their top corner Tyson Campbell, who missed Wednesday’s practice with a thigh injury. If Campbell does miss, I would not hesitate to start any Levis lineup with Calvin Ridley at WR, but may also think about using TE Chig Okonkwo alongside them. He’s got underrated athleticism and would bring down the ownership level of your lineup, making the chalky Ridley-Levis stack easier to digest.
Running Back
Higher End: Alvin Kamara ($8,000)
It’s a pick-your-poison kind of week at RB with both Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara, two of the highest usage backs in the league, in great matchups. If I were making a cash lineup, I’d likely try and squeeze both names in but for GPPs, Kamara’s lower salary and the fact he doesn’t have a TD-stealing QB like Jalen Hurts to potentially siphon off his upside makes him the more appealing option.
Not only is Kamara not attached to a rushing QB but he also no longer has to deal with Taysom Hill potentially ball-hawking away TDs in the red zone after he went down for the season with a knee injury last week. Kamara is going to get heavy, heavy usage just given the injury situation for the Saints, and the fact he’s facing a bottom-five rush defense in the Giants. New York is 26th in EPA vs the rush this season makes this a spot where I would have likely considered using Kamara, even if he were at Barkley’s price point.
Lower End: Isaac Guerendo ($5,400)
I doubt that Guerendo is going to be low-owned in any GPP this week, but the fact remains, with a 5.4k salary and him likely to get 15-20 touches against a Bears defense that ranks just 22nd in EPA against the rush, it’s a pretty impossible spot to fully fade for DFS. The rookie has already proven he’s a plus athlete who can score from distance and produced 19.2 DKFP and 61. ypc back in Week 8 when given a feature role.
The 49ers did sign Israel Abanikanda this week to back-up Geurendo, but with how little practice time he’s had, it’s hard to see him as a threat to take much usage away. It’s wheels up for Guerendo, whose biggest opponent this week might be the Bears offense outperforming and forcing the 49ers into a pass-heavy situation
Wide Receiver
Higher End: George Pickens ($6,800)
Pickens isn’t a player I typically give a ton of attention to, just given the Steelers’ run-first mentality, but this week does look like a potential spot to consider using him in bigger GPPs. The Browns have a pretty depleted secondary outside of Denzel Ward and it’s shown up on the stat sheet of late with them allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs on the season. Last week, the Broncos’ number one option Courtland Sutton was able to get open almost at will downfield, going for 102 yards on nine targets.
We all know the big TD went to Marvin Mims in that game against Denver, but Pickens is a better downfield receiver than Sutton at this stage in his career and could easily be the player who stretches the field with a long TD against this Browns defense this week. I’d look for the talented WR to break out in this spot, and at under 7k, he’s cheap enough to consider using as a pivot option off the more expensive players at his position.
Lower End: Jordan Addison ($5,300)
If I was paying up at RB this week (and you should, there are plenty of great RB options) Addison would be a primary target at WR. His low salary aside, the second-year player is also just playing much better of late. Over his last three games, he’s now posted target shares of 27%, 29%, and 23%, and has seen at least one end-zone target in each of those starts.
The Falcons are also a terrific matchup. They’ve allowed the fifth-most receptions to opposing WRs this season and tend to allow a lot of separation downfield, which has led to them allowing a 71% completion rate to opposing QBs, which is last in the league. With Justin Jefferson taking primary coverage on the other side, this should be a great spot for Addison to shine again. At just 5.3k, he’s got 5x upside which makes him exactly the kind of player you want to include in any RB-heavy build.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts ($4,100)
It’s been a tough three weeks for Pitts, who has just one catch over the Falcons last two games. Atlanta has shifted targets around all seasons making 2024 a very boom or bust year for Pitts, who went for 50+ yards in four games between Week’s 6-10, before this recent cold stretch.
I can’t see the Falcons just icing Pitts out of this offense the rest of the season and with the Vikings on tap, it makes for a great week for Pitts to make a reappearance. Minnesota has only allowed the 16th most points to opposing TEs, but have allowed the 10th most receptions to the position. They’ve also ceded some big games to opposing TEs over their last two games, including a 7-64 yards stat line to Cole Kmet two weeks ago and a 12-96 yard game to Trey McBride last week.
Pitts isn’t going to catch 12 passes, but he could break free against this blitz-heavy defense if left alone in the middle of the field and I expect Kirk Cousins to look his way more this week as a result. He’s a good contrarian play regardless, just given the negative sentiment and low ownership he’s likely to have this week.
Defense/Special Teams
Raiders ($2,300)
This one may seem a little fishy at first, but if you are looking for a cheap option and don’t mind the volatility associated with taking a big underdog at this position, I do like the chances for the Raiders DST to potentially post a decent-to-big game. Vegas came through with a season-high five sacks last week against the Chiefs, a very good effort considering the opponent. It was a season-high for the Raiders as a group and Maxx Crosby got his first sack in four games, which is a great sign that we may get some continuation from this group, pressure-wise, against Tampa.
The Buccaneers are only 14th in sacks allowed and do have a QB in Baker Mayfield who can stay in the pocket a little too long. Mayfield is having a great season but he’s also not the worst QB to up against for fantasy. He’s thrown multiple INTs in four of his last seven games and has been on the injury report of late with multiple ailments. Using Vegas not only gets your cost basis down but gives you better than advertised upside at this position, with a team that will carry next to no ownership.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
