These are my picks to win every Week 14 NFL game straight up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier. You can bet on any of these games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 14 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Eagles over Panthers – The Eagles are playing like one of the best teams in the NFL at the moment and now they get to host the 3-9 Panthers in Philadelphia. Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley should be able to run all over this Carolina defense and take full control of the clock and time of possession. The Panthers’ offense has been playing better the past few weeks but this Eagles’ defense is playing at an extremely high level. They now rank sixth in the league in defensive EPA/play and should be able to shut down the Panthers.
Buccaneers over Raiders – The Buccaneers are in the heat of a divisional race and picked up a key win over the Panthers last week. They will look to keep the momentum rolling in this spot against the Raiders. The Raiders are on a dreadful eight-game losing streak heading into this matchup against Tampa Bay. The Bucs’ offense should have too much firepower for Las Vegas. The Raiders’ defense ranks 23rd in defensive EPA/play and the Buccaneers’ offense ranks sixth in offensive EPA/play. That mismatch should be enough to get the Bucs a win.
Steelers over Browns – The Steelers picked up a pivotal divisional win over the Bengals last week and proved that they can win games in multiple ways. They will desperately want revenge against the Browns who beat them in the snow in Cleveland on Thursday Night Football a couple of weeks ago. The Browns are a fun team to watch but Jameis Winston’s interception issues make it very hard for them to win games. In this game, which will have fewer variables with the weather and is a home game, the Steelers should get their revenge.
Bengals over Cowboys – The Bengals have found ways to lose games all year but they have one of the best offenses in the NFL. They are seventh in offensive EPA/play, while the Cowboys’ defense ranks 28th in defensive EPA/play. The Bengals should be able to put up a huge number and despite the Bengals’ defensive issues, Cooper Rush and the Cowboys don’t have enough firepower to keep up with Joe Burrow.
Medium Confidence
Vikings over Falcons- Kirk Cousins has not played great the past couple of weeks and has had major turnover issues. The Vikings have one of the best-coached defenses in the NFL, ranking second in the league in defensive EPA/play, and they should be able to give Cousins a lot of issues. The Vikings are in the midst of a heated divisional race with the Lions and Packers. One of those teams will be losing Thursday night so the Vikings have the chance to either catch up to Detroit or make it a two-team race between them and the Lions, depending on the result. The Vikings’ defense should secure them this win at home.
Dolphins over Jets – The Dolphins have been playing much better since the return of Tua Tagovailoa. They struggled last week in the cold weather of Green Bay but back in Miami, they should be prepared for this game. The Jets have found ways to lose games all season and that should continue here. The Dolphins should be able to move the ball against the Jets’ defense and get some points on the board. The Dolphins also have a solid defense, ranking 12th in defensive EPA/play, and should be able to limit the struggling Jets offense.
Saints over Giants – The Giants’ defense which ranks 26th in defensive EPA/play will now be without Dexter Lawrence for the rest of the season. The Giants’ offense ranks 27th in offensive EPA/play and looked bad with Drew Lock at quarterback. The Giants are lost on both sides of the ball and could be in full tank mode as they look for their quarterback of the future in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Saints have some issues too but they have a league-average defense, ranking 16th in defensive EPA/play, and an offense that is capable of explosive plays with Derek Carr at quarterback.
49ers over Bears – The 49ers are in desperation mode. They have lost three games in a row and are incredibly banged up. Christian McCaffrey is out for the year, Brock Purdy is still not at 100% and Trent Williams is expected to miss this game. That being said, the 49ers have had a brutal schedule and now get a Bears team that just fired its head coach. This is the 49ers’ chance to show their talent level and beat a team that they are better than at home.
Bills over Rams – The Bills have been on fire and are playing like one of the best teams in the league. Josh Allen is the MVP favorite and the defense is eighth in the NFL in EPA/play. The Rams could give them a tough test at home but ultimately Josh Allen should make the winning plays to make sure that the Bills come out on top and continue their chase for the #1 seed in the AFC.
Coin-Flip Games
Chiefs over Chargers – The Chiefs seem to cut it close every single week but besides the loss to the Bills, they have always found a way to win. They should keep that up against this Chargers team. Patrick Mahomes has dominated AFC West opponents throughout his career and the Chargers will have to travel to a tough environment in Kansas City. The Chargers’ offense really struggled last week without JK Dobbins and the Chiefs’ defense should be able to slow them down. This will probably be really tight like all Chiefs games are, but Mahomes should find a way to win again.
Lions over Packers – The Lions and Packers face off in a great divisional game on Thursday Night Football. The Lions and Packers both have incredible offenses but the Lions have the defense to match. The Detroit defense is now the best in the league by EPA/play. With a top-five offense and defense, they are nearly impossible to beat. While the Packers should be competitive in this game, Detroit will likely find a way to win on their home field.
Jaguars over Titans – I am picking the upset here in Tennessee. The Jaguars have had a brutally hard run of games the past few weeks but outside of getting demolished by the Lions, they played every game really tight. They lost by five points or less to the Eagles, Vikings, Packers and Jaguars during this five-game losing streak that they are on. Before that brutal run of games, they demolished the Patriots. Even without Trevor Lawrence, the Jacksonville defense should be able to hang tough and Mac Jones is not any more untrustworthy than Will Levis.
Cardinals over Seahawks – The Cardinals and Seahawks are in the midst of an extremely competitive NFC West battle and the winner of this game will take control of first place. The Seahawks won the previous matchup at home just a couple of weeks ago and the Cardinals will want revenge on their home field. This game should be incredibly tight but the home team should find a way to win.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
