First touchdown scorer prop bets have quickly become a fan-favorite for most NFL bettors over the past few seasons, and for good reason. The odds are usually quite juicy and there is minimal sweat required unless the game features elite defenses and/or lackluster offenses. I don’t know about you but I like to find out the outcome of my bets as quickly as possible, and that’s exactly what betting first touchdown scorers gives me.
Below, I’ll run through every Week 14 NFL game and provide my top choice on DraftKings Sportsbook for the first touchdown scorer in each game.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
David Montgomery First TD Scorer (+500)
We’re not going to overthink this one––Montgomery has scored the first touchdown in 4-of-11 games and has totaled 44 red zone carries and 13 carries inside the five-yard line this season. Detroit has also won the opening coin toss in 11-of-12 games this season and I’m willing to bet that head coach Dan Campbell is going to take the ball first in a divisional matchup. Although Campbell said it wasn’t a big deal, there’s still a small chance that Jahmyr Gibbs sees fewer snaps and gets put in the doghouse for his social media antics a few days ago, too.
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley First TD Scorer (+265)
Just like Montgomery, we’re not overthinking this one. Barkley has scored the first touchdown in four games this season and gets the best possible matchup for running backs in the midst of his MVP campaign. Carolina allows the most rushing yards and touchdowns to opposing running backs this season and Philadelphia is going to feed him the rock as much as possible. Let’s just hope he doesn’t get stopped at the one-yard line, otherwise we have to experience Jalen Hurts vulturing yet another touchdown.
Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cade Otton First TD Scorer (+900)
I’d prefer to avoid the headache of choosing between Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, so I’ll pivot to Otton. It is a risky play considering his production has dropped since Mike Evans returned from injury. However, he has a prime matchup this week against the Raiders, who have surrendered the third-most receiving yards and touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season. Otton garnered seven targets last week but was ineffective. He leads the team in red zone targets with 15, and this should be a nice get-right spot for both him and Baker Mayfield, who is coming off a two-interception performance.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
George Pickens First TD Scorer (+550)
Editor’s Note: Steelers WR George Pickens (hamstring) has been ruled out for today’s game vs. the Browns.
Najee Harris is tempting and dominates the red zone snaps but the Russell Wilson-to-Pickens connection has been far too strong to ignore, especially against a leaky Browns secondary. Pickens has garnered 32 targets across the last four weeks and should continue the strong play early against Cleveland, who has allowed the sixth-most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season. Pickens leads all Steelers’ pass-catchers with 16 red zone targets but I wouldn’t be surprised if a vintage Wilson moonball on the opening drive is the play that cashes this prop at +550 odds.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
Drake London First TD Scorer (+1100)
Kirk Cousins is coming off an awful four-interception performance but London saw a season-high 16 targets. He also leads the team in red zone targets (19) and gets to face a Minnesota secondary that has surrendered the third-most receiving yards and sixth-most receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season. The Vikings are the better team and there are plenty of stars on their offense to spoil this bet but they’ve looked a bit slow the past few weeks and I’m not totally convinced that they will dominate this game out of the gate. Cousins will get back on track and will look for his top receiver early and often.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Jonnu Smith First TD Scorer (+950)
This game is full of injuries on both sides of the ball. I tend to avoid Jets props altogether because well, they’re the Jets, so let’s go with Smith. It seems as if the Dolphins didn’t realize how deadly Smith could be in their system till only a few weeks ago. He’s caught the first touchdown in two of the last three games, as well as garnering 34 targets in that span. The looming threat of De’Von Achane is certainly staring at me right now but Miami makes it a point to get Smith going early and New York’s defense ranks third in quarterback pressure rate (38.6%), per Next Gen Stats. Tua Tagovailoa will stick to the quick-pass game as a result, and Smith will benefit.
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
Alvin Kamara First TD Scorer (+340)
I don’t necessarily trust either of these offenses but considering the elite touchdown vulture, Taysom Hill, tore his ACL last week, Kamara suddenly becomes viable again. Kamara hasn’t found the end zone since Week 6 but the absence of Hill should change that. He has still totaled at least 16 carries in four straight weeks and has surpassed 100 rushing yards twice in that span. Hill totaled nine red zone carries and scored four times, opening the door for Kamara, who already has 34 red zone carries, to replace those carries and finally get back into the end zone.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Tony Pollard First TD Scorer (+390)
I’d love to ride the high of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and I’ll eat my words if he scores again but how much longer can that touchdown freak keep it up? I’m pivoting to Pollard, who should see plenty of carries in an expected low-scoring affair. Pollard has totaled single-digit carries in three of the last four games but Tennessee was playing from behind and the game-script didn’t favor him in the slightest. Tyjae Spears is back in the mix now but Pollard still logged 73% of the snaps last week and should receive plenty of opportunities early on to find the end zone against an awful Jaguars defense.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
James Conner First TD Scorer (+310)
Divisional matchups are always dogfights and Arizona struggled in its last outing vs. Seattle, scoring just six points and losing, 16-6. After winning four straight, the Cardinals have now dropped back-to-back games and need to stay in the hunt in a tight division. Luckily, Arizona tends to start off hot, scoring a touchdown on 50% of its opening drives this season. Conner has been a bit up-and-down lately but has still totaled at least 16 carries in 8-of-12 games this season. He also leads the team in red zone carries with 37, and Seattle has been susceptible to the run, particularly when playing on the road.
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams First TD Scorer (+500)
As a Bills fan, I’m well aware of how leaky the run defense can be. We saw it with Christian McCaffrey in the first half of Sunday Night Football last week and particularly with teams that feed the rock to their alpha RB1 all game long. I expect Williams to have a strong game at home against the Bills. He obviously dominates the snap share, logging an average of 92% in 12 games this season. Buffalo just clinched the AFC East and may underestimate Los Angeles early on, too. Williams has found the end zone 12 times in as many games and has the matchup to get going early and score the first touchdown of the game.
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers
George Kittle First TD Scorer (+950)
The 49ers offense has struggled mightily since coming off of their bye week but with so many injuries, there aren’t many healthy weapons left, which leaves Kittle. He leads all 49ers’ pass-catchers with 17 red zone targets and although he’s only seen 12 total targets in the last three weeks, he’s still found the end zone twice in that span. San Francisco will lean on Kittle throughout the game and Chicago has allowed a few other alpha tight ends (Hockenson and Engram) to post monster games. Plus, Chicago tends to start off slow offensively––the boost from firing its head coach could be worrisome, though.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Xavier Worthy First TD Scorer (+1300)
Patrick Mahomes tends to air it out when playing against the Chargers, so why not take Worthy to score the first touchdown on a huge pass? Worthy housed a 54-yard touchdown in Week 4 against Los Angeles and has seen his targets increase each week. He’s totaled 21 targets across the last few weeks and faces an inconsistent Chargers secondary that has allowed six 40+ yard receptions and 35 20+ yard receptions this season. The chemistry is slowly building between Worthy and Mahomes, and I’ll take my chances on them connecting on a bomb for the first touchdown of the game in front of the home fans.
Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys
Ja’Marr Chase First TD Scorer (+475)
Chase Brown was enticing considering how bad Dallas’ run defense is, especially at home, but Chase just cannot stay out of the end zone. Joe Burrow has been tearing defenses apart this season and Chase has feasted as a result. He has only scored the first touchdown once this season but has garnered a whopping 61 targets across his last four games and Burrow will likely get him going early. The presence of Tee Higgins worries me when it comes to the red zone and there’s a chance Trevon Diggs returns to the lineup but we’re talking about Chase here. He’s been on fire and I’m going to ride with the hot hand on Cincinnati’s offense.
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