Mike Evans’ quest for his eleventh-straight 10,000 yard season could be in its deepest peril yet. Coming into this week needing over 100 receiving yards per game to keep his streak going, Evans has been nursing a calf injury. The ailment has kept him out of practice both Wednesday and, now, today.
Still no practice participation today for Mike Evans, Bucky Irving and Tristan Wirfs. https://t.co/cHzgZnzhdT
— Scott Smith (@ScottSBucs) December 5, 2024
This would leave Sterling Shepard and rookie WR Jalen McMillan at the helm of the wide receiver room for Week 14, should Evans miss time. It’s likely Cade Otton would be the most reliable Buccaneer pass-catcher to own, but Shepard’s only $4,000 this week in the NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st] contest over at DraftKings. McMillan’s salary is similarly juicy: $3,500. Given the salary disparity, let’s break down their stats to see which would be the better DFS option against the Raiders.
Analysis
Anyone else beginning to get the sense that Baker Mayfield’s a rapport quarterback? Seldom have we seen better performances from Baker than when he’s feeding Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and, especially this year, Cade Otton. Rachaad White, too, seems to have a good sense of Baker’s check-down zones, as his 18 targets and 16 receptions since Week 8 suggest (even crazier a stat is that, since Week 8, Bucky Irving has 22 receptions on 22 targets).
The Raiders’ pass defense is league-average at best, so I’m willing to let history do a lot of the conclusion-drawing for me, here. Since Week 8, Shepard has 27 targets to McMillan’s 12. That’s close enough to three times the opportunity value in Shepard’s direction that it’d take eye-popping stuff from McMillan’s seven paltry receptions on those 12 targets to swing me.
And, unfortunately, McMillan hasn’t been efficient. He has a 68.3% expected catch rate, 71 yards, and has seen two of those dozen targets result in interceptions.
Bottom Line
Shepard, during that same time frame, has caught 17 of his 27 targets for 171 yards. No touchdowns, also no interceptions on any of the targets. Sort of just a yardage guy who leaves the money downs to Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, and Cade Otton. But just about 30 targets without a touchdown is a low rate by any stretch of the imagination.
Shepard’s more likely to experience positive regression this week than McMillan, who’d need to see an exponential leap in volume for us to expect that. McMillan was out there in Week 13 for 58 offensive plays, his most of the season. He still only saw three targets.
I’d avoid both altogether, frankly. But, pinch my nose? Let’s run Shepard out there for an even four-K and pray for paydirt.
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