Week 14 is starting off with a banger! I’ll give you some Packers Lions bets you can tail along with on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Thursday Night Football game.
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Jordan Love under 250.5 passing yards -115
Since the loss Aidan Hutchinson, the Lions have blitzed at the highest rate in the league. That’s not great news for Jordan Love. Love is averaging just 5.5 yards per pass attempt, one of the lowest in the league, and -0.36 EPA per dropback. That’s a stark difference from his 0.27 EPA against four or fewer rushers, which is the highest in the league. Even with the game script likely in favor of the pass for the Packers, this could be a spot where Love struggles.
Love did go over this number in Week 9 against the Lions, as he threw for 273 yards in the loss. Jayden Reed accounted for nearly half of those with his 113 yards on five catches, including a 41 yarder. I would be shocked if the Lions allowed Reed to go wild on them again, especially so closely after. When you take out Reed’s production, Love was just 18/33 for 160 yards. If the Lions are able to supress Reed, I think Love ends up going under in this game.
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Amon-Ra St. Brown over 71.5 receiving yards -110
Last week was the first time in a few weeks where St. Brown split his snaps nearly 50/50 between the slot and out wide. Currently, he’s lined up in the slot on only 34% of his snaps, which is currently a career-low. Last week, however, we saw a 48% snap share in the slot. This would be a great game for him to line up in the slot, as it’ll put him against Javon Bullard. In coverage, he’s allowed a 79% catch rate on 43 targets and 10.5 YPR. When St. Brown is lined up in the slot, he’s averaging eight yards on his 35 targets.
St. Brown saw seven targets in the Week 9 matchup against the Packers and which he caught all of them for 56 yards. However, he only lined up in the slot on 19 of his 54 snaps. If he’s being played more in the slot again, this would be a great spot for him to go over his yardage prop on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Detroit Lions first half over 13.5 points -118
The Lions have been the highest scoring first-half team in the league. Entering this game, they’ve averaged 18.5 points in the first-half, which is more than 3.1 point than any other team. To take this even further, they’ve averaged 19.3 points in the first half, at home, which also leads the league. Scoring at least two touchdowns in the first half doesn’t feel like a tall task in a game that has a total of 51.5. The Lions have notoriously gotten off to fast starts and hung 17 points against the Packers in the second quarter in Week 9. I expect more of the same here in their Week 14 battle.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
