I don’t think anyone expected Taysom Hill to suffer a season-ending ACL injury on that fourth-and-one carry to the left edge. But, unfortunately, just as Hill was starting to become a legitimate top fantasy asset in the New Orleans Saints’ offense, he’s now staring down the barrel of a major ligament convalescence at the age of 34. It is, quite frankly, a terrific bummer for both fantasy managers and the Saints, who are left with Juwan Johnson as their starting tight end.
Of course, the void Hill leaves behind isn’t something we can expect Juwan Johnson to fill totally. He’s only had, after all, two games with over 10.0 PPR points. He’s a veteran who’s best served blocking for Alvin Kamara. But tight end is barren outside the top-five. No one knows the fate of Dalton Kincaid. Kyle Pitts is a ghost. Etc.
Let’s evaluate Johnson’s advanced metrics to see if he’s worth a start for his fantasy playoffs schedule.
Analysis
Let’s start here: Johnson’s game log is flat-out ugly. His season in aggregate is not one you’d look at statistically and at face-value and think: here be unstruck oil for the fantasy football playoffs. I get it.
But let’s just consider some context. Derek Carr missed three weeks with his injury, during which a disappointing combination of Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener ran signal-caller duties. I wish I’d be able to attribute Juwan Johnson’s average of only 6.1 PPR fantasy points per game to an injury that kept Carr out longer, but alas.
Johnson has cleared five targets only thrice this season: Week 5, 7, and 13. These are also the weeks during which Taysom Hill started to see more offensive touches in the play-calling mix. The Saints started to run more two tight end sets, but Johnson was second-fiddle to Hill.
So—now what? Johnson won’t absorb Hill’s carries. He can’t throw the ball. He’s not a deep threat. So he’s going to be absolutely nothing like the sort of fantasy league-winner Taysom Hill was shaping up to be. But here are some interesting efficiency stats that make me a bit hopeful about Juwan’s fantasy usage:
According to PlayerProfiler, Juwan Johnson’s efficiency metrics are off the charts. He ranks eighth at the position in fantasy points per target (2.02), sixth at the position in QB rating per target (123.6), and fifth in the aggregate production premium score (+13.8). Which is to say, though Johnson’s volume has been low, his effectiveness whenever he’s gotten touches has been worthy of TE1 numbers.
Bottom Line
Johnson’s owned in exactly 10.0% of fantasy leagues, and that’s understandable. The teams in your leagues who are making the playoffs are likely equipped with the likes of Brock Bowers, Mark Andrews, George Kittle, and Trey McBride. It’s only folks on the fringes of playoff seedings who might need to be searching for tight end help.
I, myself, am a Dalton Kincaid owner. You might be a Sam LaPorta manager, or someone rostering T.J. Hockenson. It’s not a bad idea to toss Juwan on the bench. He faces the Commanders, the Packers, and the Raiders in the fantasy playoffs. Those are all league-average-or-below defenses against tight ends.
The NFC South is still competitive enough that I expect Carr to be throwing a lot to try to win these ballgames. If not, we’ll have to see whether or not the Saints are going to head into full-on disruptor mode (hello, Cleveland Browns) or total quit watch (Jaguars). Juwan could be a beneficiary of this, should the Saints want to maximize his efficiency so far this season.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is thegreatdansby) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
