The Hero World Challenge is an exhibition event hosted by Tiger Woods every season in the Bahamas. The event is a small 20-man field but features some of the biggest names in golf, with world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler again headlining the field.
Scheffler won this event last season at 20-under par and will be joined by Ludvig Aberg, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, and Wyndham Clark this season. The course in play this week is the Albany Course, which plays as a par 72 but is unique in its setup as it contains five par 5s. That’s important to remember for Pick6 lineups as the additional par 5 does make it easier for the field to gain a stroke with a birdie or better.
The venue is also quite open with easier-to-hit fairways and greens, but can be affected by significant offshore winds. In the past, the winning scores here have fluctuated a lot, and Scheffler’s winning score of 20-under last year was under mostly ideal conditions.
Day 1 looks calm with mild temperatures so the scoring conditions should be good. I expect a decent amount of birdies to be made, but with several players (including Scheffler) coming in off long competitive layoffs, there will likely be some players who start slow as a result.
We’ll try to sort through all that chaos and find the best edges this week below.
Tom Kim Less Than 69.5 Strokes
As I mentioned above, the course this week plays as an easier par 72 with five par 5s. Typically we see tons of low scores this week when the conditions are calm and for Round 1, the wind looks like it will stay under 10 MPH. That should mean ideal scoring conditions and with several top players set with a 69.5 first-round total, I like the idea of taking some less than’s on bigger names to start our Pick6 lineups with.
Tom Kim didn’t play a ton over the fall but he did get in a couple of starts, including a T-2 at the Genesis Championship over in South Korea. Kim’s just generally a great links player and has also excelled on courses where the scoring is low. It’s his first time playing the Albany Course but I can’t see him not liking the setup or format. All-in-all, with Scheffler set with a 67.5 total for Round 1, the fact we can get Kim at two points higher at 69.5 just makes him an ideal less than target in my eyes.
He’s second in birdies or better gained over the last 24 rounds in this field and, stylistically, fits perfectly with the course this week.
Nick Dunlap Less Than 70.5 Strokes
I’ll take the same approach with our second pick Nick Dunlap, who is coming off a massive year where he won twice on the PGA, first as an amateur back in January at the American Express. Dunlap is also making his first appearance at the Albany Course this season but I doubt he’ll be taking this invitation from Tiger Woods lightly.
He also comes in with at least a little form, having played in the Sanderson Farms event in October, where he finished T-28 and gained over 5.0 strokes on approach. Dunlap has also been a great birdie maker and ranks second in opportunities gained (just behind Scheffler) over the last 24 rounds. He looks undervalued with a very high 70.5 round.
Sam Burns Less Than 2.5 Bogeys or Worse
I’ll take a bit of a chance this week that Sam Burns can come out of the gates hot and put together a somewhat clean round. The American is a player who also tends to like lower-scoring venues, so while the wind is low it’s generally a good time to be bullish on him.
He didn’t play at all this fall but had a terrific playoffs, finishing T-5 at the FedEx and T-2 at the St. Jude. Burns can be very hot or cold but on this easier course with lots of room off the tee, I don’t see him having a ton of issues if he’s clicking with his irons. He’s also a player who can just go out and gain +3.0 strokes putting in pretty much any round, so even if his A-game doesn’t show up, he can save us on this one with a good round on the greens.
Ultimately, with the wind down for Round 1, I just see this 2.5 total as too high and want to fade it with at least one player, with Burns being the most appealing target for me.
Aaron Rai Less than 41.5 Fantasy Points
Rai broke through for his first win on the PGA this summer with a win at the Wyndham Championship. He did have one big week at the BMW PGA (T-4) in September but otherwise took most of the fall season off, posting a MC in Spain in his only other start.
On top of coming in without a ton of competitive prep, Rai is also just not the greatest player to be bullish on in a stronger field for fantasy. He doesn’t make a ton of birdies (17 out of 20 in this field in BoB%) and will be playing this event for the first time. He may not shoot over par but I also wouldn’t want to back him for a big opening round in this spot either.
With his fantasy total set at the same level as other more elite fantasy players, he’s a good fade candidate for me going into Round 1.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recomm
