This is an interesting spot on Monday Night Football when it comes to player props, with the Browns traveling to Denver to face the Broncos. I lean to laying the points with Denver, which is 5-0 SU/ATS as a favorite this season, winning those games by an average of 19 points. I think the Broncos also make for a good moneyline parlay piece or teaser leg if you’re looking for one.
But as for a prop, this sets up as a terrific spot for the home favorite to run the ball. We know Denver has an elite offensive line, so as nearly a touchdown favorite on its home field, the game script sets up perfectly. But the matchup might be even better, as the Browns have been trending downward in recent weeks when it comes to defending the run. Cleveland now ranks dead last in rushing yards per game allowed on the road this season, and I’m expecting those struggles to continue in a tough environment.
Sounds like a fantastic spot to take a position, but we have just one issue — who the heck is going to get the carries out of Denver’s backfield?
Javonte Williams has been the lead back for the majority of the season, and led the team with eight carries last week in a win over the Raiders. The problem is that he went backwards against a poor Las Vegas defense, losing two yards on those eight carries. Audric Estime broke out for 53 yards on 14 carries in a close game in Kansas City, but surprisingly has only seen nine carries since. The rookie is in the mix to steal carries from Williams, but Sean Payton seems to have issues fully committing to that switch.
What seems clear to me is that McLaughlin is in line for some type of role in the Denver backfield no matter what. He took seven carries last week, and was by far the Broncos’ most productive rusher, gaining 44 yards (6.3 YPC). I don’t think McLaughlin has a shot to be the lead back for Denver, so I wouldn’t go crazy laddering his yards or anything, but he has consistently mixed in all season, and his most recent game wouldn’t indicate reducing his role in any way.
With a rushing prop set at 19.5 yards, 4-5 carries should realistically be all we need here for McLaughlin. I’d expect him to see a bit more than that, particularly as a big home favorite against this slacking Cleveland run defense. We aren’t asking for much here, so in a backfield with a lot of mysteries, I’ll confidently back McLaughlin to go over 19.5 rushing yards.
PLAY: Jaleel McLaughlin OVER 19.5 Rushing Yards (-120) 1-unit
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