The Cleveland Browns will travel to Empower Field at Mile High in Denver to face the Broncos for tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup.
Cleveland received a midseason spark from their quarterback change, with Jameis Winston changing the outlook of the team. The former number-one pick brought in his gunslinging mentality and breathed some life into the position players. Cleveland holds a 3-8 record, but is coming off a thrilling Thursday Night Football victory over the Steelers last week. While their record is disappointing, Winston and many other members of the organization are playing for future job opportunities, so this is far from a throwaway game.
Denver enters tonight with a 7-5 record and has exceeded expectations to this point. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has shown some really positive flashes and their defense has been among the best in the league. The Broncos find themselves in the playoff mix and cannot afford to lose this game if they are to take the next step ahead of schedule.
The Broncos enter this game as 6.5-point favorites and are -270 on the Moneyline. The Browns are +220 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 41.5 for the matchup. With the stage fully set for Monday Night Football, here are four player props I like.
Jameis Winston Over 236.5 Passing Yards (-115)
If there is one thing we know about Jameis Winston, he is not afraid to let it fly. Winston led the NFL in passing yards, passing attempts, and interceptions during his time as a starter with the Buccaneers. You have to take the good with the bad with Winston, but arm talent has never been a concern in his game. In his four games as the Browns’ starter this season, Winston has thrown for 334, 235, 395, and 219 yards.
Denver has a strong defense that ranks second in points allowed and third in yards given up. Looking at their pass defense, they rank ninth in passing yards allowed, sixth in passing touchdowns allowed, and second in net yards per pass attempt. While this matchup is a challenge, Winston has thrown the ball 41 or more times in three of his four games as a starter. His lone exception to this was last week in the snow, though he still attempted 27 passes.
While it may not be the cleanest path, expect Winston to receive enough volume to reach this passing total again this week. Cleveland has not been shy about unleashing him in the offense and this is the same Jameis Winston who has averaged more than 236.5 passing yards in every season he has been a regular starter. Expect the Denver defense to have its moments of success, but for Winston to continue slinging it and have enough volume to eclipse this number tonight.
Jerry Jeudy Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
While the entire outlook of the Browns’ offense changed when Winston stepped in as quarterback, Jerry Jeudy tops the list of players most positively impacted. On the season overall, he has tallied 45 receptions for 645 yards and two touchdowns. He is averaging 58.6 receiving yards per game and has logged at least one catch in every game this season.
In the four games with Winston as the starting quarterback, Jeudy has recorded five or more catches in each contest. He only reached this number twice across the first seven games played with Deshaun Watson under center. Across the past four weeks, Jeudy has averaged 94.8 receiving yards per game and recorded one of his two touchdowns on the season. This includes two games with double-digit targets and a high of 142 receiving yards.
In addition, this will be a game that carries some extra meaning for Jeudy. The standout wide receiver was initially drafted by the Broncos with the 15th overall pick in the 2020 draft and spent the first four seasons of his career in Denver. He was traded from the Broncos to the Browns this summer and signed an extension with the organization shortly after. Look for him to see plenty of targets from Winston and get revenge over his former teammates as he records more than 60.5 receiving yards for the fifth consecutive week.
Bo Nix Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+105)
The Denver Broncos threw Bo Nix right to the fire after selecting him with the 12th overall pick. The rookie has started every game this season and has seen some notable areas of growth throughout the season. On the season overall, Nix has thrown for 2,548 yards, 16 touchdowns, and six interceptions.
The Oregon product has especially come on strong in recent weeks. After being held without a passing touchdown in the first three weeks of the season, Nix has thrown for two or more touchdowns in six of the past eight games, including each of the past three games. Nix has taken a step forward in his processing of the game and gained more trust from Sean Payton as the season has progressed.
This is a great opportunity for Nix to continue building against a Browns defense that has struggled this year. Overall, Cleveland ranks 23rd in both points and yards allowed. Looking at their pass defense, the Browns rank 16th in passing yards and touchdowns allowed. Cleveland also has allowed 20 or more points in nine of the 11 games this season. Expect Nix to continue being trusted in the red zone and record two or more passing touchdowns for the fourth consecutive week against a mediocre defense.
Courtland Sutton & Jerry Jeudy to Combine for 150+ Receiving Yards (+140)
While we referenced the outlook for Jerry Jeudy above, it should be noted that Courtland Sutton was a driving force for the Broncos’ decision to move on from the younger wideout. The lingering extension talks with Jeudy and the belief in Sutton paved the way for this transaction to occur. In Jeudy’s absence, Sutton has taken a stride forward in his production.
So far this season, Sutton has tallied 57 receptions for 744 yards and five touchdowns. He is averaging 62.0 receiving yards per game and is currently just 28 yards short of last year’s receiving output. Sutton also has seen his production grow as Nix has improved throughout the season. He has recorded six or more catches and 70+ receiving yards in each of the past five games, including two games with 100+ receiving yards.
With both of these receivers playing their best football at this point in the season, expect a productive game from both. The duo have combined for 150+ receiving yards in three of the past four games with 143 yards being the total in the game they did not reach this mark. Count on both to look like the clear-cut top receiver in their respective offenses and to combine for 150+ receiving yards tonight as the offenses open up.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
