The Cleveland Browns will travel to Denver to take on the Broncos and cap off the Week 13 NFL slate.
While this may not be the blockbuster matchup most hope for, there are exciting storylines surrounding both teams. There are also only five Monday Night Football matchups remaining before the playoffs arrive, so we should not take any for granted.
The Broncos enter as 6.5-point favorites with -290 odds on the moneyline. The Browns are +235 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the game total is set at 41.5 points.
There are far more ways to get involved in the action than just traditional betting. One of the more unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Football!
Browns at Broncos Pick6 Plays
The Cleveland Browns received a midseason spark from the quarterback change. Jameis Winston has changed the outlook of the team and revitalized the offense. The former No. 1 overall pick has showcased his gunslinging mentality and showed no fear of airing the ball out. While Cleveland enters with a 3-8 record, it is coming off a thrilling Thursday night victory over the Steelers last week, complete with Winston’s snow angels to cap off the win. Winston and many other members of the Browns organization are playing for future job opportunities, so this is far from a throwaway game for the struggling franchise.
The Denver Broncos sit on the other side of the equation having exceeded expectations to this point. Rookie Bo Nix was thrown to the fire as the opening-week starter and has shown growth throughout the season. Denver enters this game with a 7-5 record and with its playoff hopes still alive. If the Broncos are to take the next step as an organization, these are the types of games they cannot afford to lose.
With the stage set, here are my top Pick6 choices for the Week 13 Monday night matchup.
Jameis Winston More Than 237.5 Passing Yards
There has never been a doubt about the arm talent or willingness to throw the ball for Jameis Winston. In his four games as a starter with the Browns, Winston has produced passing outputs of 334, 235, 395 and 219 passing yards. This comes after Deshaun Watson was unable to throw for more than 196 passing yards in any of his seven games as a starter. This is the same Jameis Winston who has led the NFL in passing yards, passing attempts and interceptions during his time as a starter with the Buccaneers.
Denver has a strong defense that ranks second in points allowed and third in yards given up. Looking at their pass defense, the Broncos rank ninth in passing yards allowed, sixth in passing touchdowns conceded and second in net yards per pass attempt. While this will be a difficult defensive matchup for Winston and the Browns, expect there to be enough volume for him to reach this passing total.
Winston has thrown the ball 41 times in three of the four starts with the lone exception being last week’s matchup in the snow in which he still threw the ball 27 times for 219 yards. Cleveland has not been shy about unleashing the 30-year-old and he has averaged more than 237.5 passing yards in every season he has been a regular starter. It may not be the cleanest pathway to reaching it, but look for Winston to record more than 237.5 passing yards tonight and air the ball out until the final whistle.
Jerry Jeudy More Than 60.5 Receiving Yards
While the entire offense has benefited from the jolt of life from Jameis Winston, Jerry Jeudy has been the biggest winner. Across the past four games with Winston at quarterback, Jeudy has recorded five or more catches in every matchup. He only reached this number twice across the seven games he played with Watson this season. In addition, Jeudy is averaging 94.8 receiving yards per game across the past four games and has recorded one of his two touchdowns on the season. This includes two games with 10+ targets and as many as 142 receiving yards. This has been well above his season-long average of 58.6 receiving yards per game.
In addition to the roster change, this will be a matchup that carries a little extra weight for Jeudy. The former Alabama product was selected with the 15th overall pick and spent the first four seasons of his career in Denver. Jeudy was traded from the Broncos to the Browns this summer and signed an extension shortly after.
With the offense clicking in a way it hasn’t all season and some added motivation due to the matchup, expect a big night from Jeudy. While he will face the same battle against a tough Broncos defense, there will be enough volume of targets for Jeudy to have a successful night. Look for him to play his best against his former team and record more than 60.5 receiving yards for the fifth consecutive game.
Courtland Sutton More Than 67.5 Receiving Yards
While the contract conversations were likely the larger driving force behind the decision to move on from Jerry Jeudy, the belief in Courtland Sutton also played a role. The 29-year-old has taken a stride forward in his production this season. Overall, he has tallied 57 receptions for 744 yards and five touchdowns. Sutton is averaging 62.0 receiving yards per game and currently is just 28 yards shy of last year’s season-long receiving total.
Sutton will benefit from a struggling Browns defense in this matchup. Overall this season, Cleveland ranks 23rd in points and yards allowed and 30th in turnovers forced. Looking at their pass defense, the Browns rank 16th in passing yards and touchdowns allowed and 26th in net yards per pass attempt.
The outlook for Sutton has continued to improve as the season has progressed and Bo Nix has continued to develop. He has recorded six or more catches and 70+ receiving yards in each of the past five games, including two games with 100+ receiving yards. Expect this trend to continue against a struggling defense and for Sutton to continue emerging as a legitimate No. 1 target. Count on him to record more than 67.5 receiving yards for the sixth consecutive game.
Jerome Ford Less Than 32.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards
The outlook for Jerome Ford drastically changed upon the return of Nick Chubb. While Ford showed some flashes in the starting running back’s absence, there is no debate about who is the most talented running back on the roster. Ford tallied 49 or more yards from scrimmage across five of the first six weeks with Chubb on the sideline. He then missed the next two weeks and has produced 27, 39 and seven yards from scrimmage in the three games since.
Ford has logged 56% or fewer offensive snaps since Chubb has returned. He is also coming off just 34% of the offensive snaps last week, which is a season-low in games that he started and finished. On top of this, Denver has an impressive defense that has had success against the run. This season, it ranks sixth in rushing yards allowed and second in rushing touchdowns conceded.
Expect the Browns to lean on Nick Chubb for the vast majority of touches out of the backfield. With a strong defense matched up against them and Ford’s role already shrinking, expect him to record less than 32.5 rushing and receiving yards tonight.
Audric Estime Less Than 17.5 Rushing Yards
The Denver Broncos selected Audric Estime with the 147th overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft. The Notre Dame product broke free in Week 10, recording 14 carries for 53 rushing yards and logged a season-high 26 offensive snaps. There were hopes he would emerge late in the season and be a player to note out of the backfield.
Unfortunately for Estime, his opportunity seems to be fading. Looking at his offensive snap count over the past few weeks, Estime has logged seven, 26, 14 and then five offensive snaps over the past four weeks. He was limited to three carries for 15 yards last week.
With Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin set to receive the majority of the opportunities, expect Estime to be reduced to an afterthought in the offense. There will be better days ahead for the rookie, but don’t expect him to make an impact tonight. Look for him to record less than 17.5 rushing yards just as he has in five of the eight games he has been active for.
Bo Nix More Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
The growth of Bo Nix throughout the season has been the biggest storyline surrounding the Broncos. The organization elected to make him the day-one starter after selecting him with the 12th overall pick. Nix has taken significant strides forward in his development as the season progressed and has thrown for 2,548 yards, 16 touchdowns and six interceptions overall.
Tonight’s matchup with the Browns is an excellent opportunity for Nix to build off his strong stretch of play. Cleveland ranks 23rd in both points and overall yards allowed and, when looking at its pass defense, ranks 16th in both passing touchdowns and passing yards allowed and 26th in net yards per pass attempt. Cleveland has also allowed 20 or more points in nine of the 11 games this season.
After being held without a passing touchdown across the first three weeks, Nix has been unleashed and given more freedom in the red zone. He has thrown for two or more touchdowns in six of the past eight games and three consecutive matchups leading into this game. Look for this stretch of strong play to continue against a mediocre defense and for Nix to throw more than 1.5 touchdowns for the fourth straight game.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (“Pick Set”) of at least two players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must select players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.Must be at least 18 years or older. Higher age limits may apply in some states. Eligibility restrictions apply. Valid only in states where DraftKings Pick6 operates. Void where prohibited. For entertainment purposes only. Winning a contest on DraftKings depends on knowledge and exercise of skill. See terms at pick6.draftkings.com.
