Yeah, yeah––I get it. Everyone is going to be focused on the Josh Allen and Christian McCaffrey player props for tonight’s Sunday Night Football matchup between the 49ers and Bills. I’m not, though, and lucky for you, I found a very under-the-radar prop bet to consider instead.
This prop bet is available on DraftKings Sportsbook in the D/ST section––care to guess what it is? Read below to see which prop I’m referring to as well as some analysis and reasoning behind it.
Best under-the-radar prop bet for Bills vs. 49ers on Sunday Night Football
Will the SF 49ers Record a Sack? No (+550)
There are quite a few reasons why I’m backing this prop bet tonight. First, I’m a Bills fan and have had the pleasure of watching Allen evade opposing defenders all season long and get sacked just 13 times, which leads the league. Second, Nick Bosa will miss his second game in a row with an oblique injury. Third, the weather in Buffalo right now is about what you’d expect––a snowmageddon, and luckily, Allen loves the snow. Now, let’s break it all down.
The obvious concern in this game is the constant slipping and sliding. But, I don’t think that affects Allen’s mobility as much as it does the 49ers’ edge rushers’ ability to properly take the edge against the Bills’ tackles. This game will likely feature tons of running and when it is a passing play, odds are it’ll be a quick pass. Allen is certainly prone to leaving the pocket and extending plays but that’s where the absence of Bosa comes in.
Per Next Gen Stats, San Francisco pressures the opposing quarterback 37.1% of the time and gets home 8.4% of the time––with Bosa on the field. Without him, though, those numbers drop to 31.5% and 4.1%, respectively. I’m aware of the potential Leonard Floyd revenge game, which Buffalo let walk this past offseason, but it’s truly a difficult feat to sack Allen, especially at home. Bills tackle Spencer Brown will also return to the lineup after missing Week 11 with an ankle injury, a much-needed boost for Buffalo’s right side of the offensive line. Brown logs the lowest quarterback pressure rate (5.7%) and sack rate (0.3%) of the five starting offensive linemen for Buffalo.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
